 More Mortgage Rates News 1-31-2012Tuesday, January 31, 2012 - Article by: James Brooks -
By James Brooks Tuesday's bond market initially opened flat but has since moved into positive territory as a result of weak economic news late this morning. The stock markets opened in positive ground, but gave up those gains after the same economic data was released. The Dow is currently down 44 points while the Nasdaq has lost 6 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32, but we will likely still see an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to weakness in bonds late yesterday. The 4th Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) was posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning. It revealed an increase of 0.4% that pegged forecasts. That means that employer costs for worker wages and benefits did rise the last three months of the year, but at a pace that did not surprise many. Therefore, we should consider the data to be neutral-to-slightly negative for bonds and mortgage rates. January's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was posted late this morning by the Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group. They announced a surprise reading of 61.1 that was a noticeable decline from December's level and well short of the 67.0 that was expected. This means surveyed consumers were much less optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. That makes the data good news for mortgage rates because waning confidence means consumers are less likely to make a large purchase in the near future. Tomorrow has one of the week's two key economic reports scheduled. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will release their manufacturing index for January at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index tracks manufacturer sentiment by rating surveyed trade executives' opinions of business conditions. It is usually the first economic data released each month and is one of this week's very important reports. Current forecasts are calling for a reading in the neighborhood of 54.5, which would be an increase from December's reading. The lower the reading, the better the news for the bond market and mortgage rates because weaker sentiment indicates a slowing manufacturing sector. Tomorrow also has a couple of private sector employment-related reports due to be released. They normally don't draw much attention unless they show a significant surprise. I am not too concerned about their results, but the potential does exist that a significant variance in the numbers could lead to changes in mortgage pricing. Signs of significant employment sector weakness would be favorable for the bond market and mortgage rates, especially since we will see the Labor Department's monthly Employment report Friday morning. |
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