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With economic news sporting a warmer glow for the past couple of months, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke boldly claimed that the "recession is very likely over." It's not unreasonable to assume that many people would respond with the query "So when does the recovery start?"

There is little doubt that the numbers, facts, and figures which define and describe the nation's output have taken a decidedly firmer tone as Summer progressed and that the Gross Domestic Product readings will likely turn positive before long. However, there is plenty of doubt that this new firmness will grow into a full-fledged growth pattern soon -- or without significant ongoing government support.

In different times, rosier data would push mortgage rates higher, demands for credit and concerns about inflation being what they are. However, those investor demands for higher compensation are keyed off the belief that higher growth and higher inflation are coming, and the present stance of soft interest rates just doesn't suggest that belief has formed to the degree necessary to press rates higher.

The overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages tracked Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) shed another four basis points (.04%) this week, landing at a flat 5.50%. The corresponding overall average for 5/1 Hybrid ARMs shed three basis points and came in at 4.84%. Conforming FRMs drifted down a bit, putting the average comfortably under 5.25%.

While there's nothing to suggest that a sharp turnaround in rates is in the cards, it's worth noting that consumers have been lulled to sleep before in the face of gently falling rates, only to discover that the market can turn fickle in short order. If you have designs on refinancing, you should recognize this opportunity to do so.

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