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Mortgage rates were relatively flat during the month of February. The 30-yr fixed FNMA required net yield (60 day) fell to 4.77%, from 4.81%.

The Fed currently has significant influence on mortgage rates. Over the last year, the Fed pushed mortgage rates lower by purchasing over $1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The Fed's Plosser suggested that the Fed should begin selling those MBS "sooner rather than later." Later that day, the Fed released the detailed minutes from the January 27 Fed meeting. The minutes revealed that "several" Fed officials favored starting the sale of the Fed's MBS portfolio "in the near future." Investors were not expecting that Fed MBS sales would begin any time soon. Quite simply, adding to the supply of MBS being sold means that yields would need to move higher to attract buyers. Since mortgage rates are largely determined by MBS yields, mortgage rates rose after the news.

The Fed announced an increase in the discount rate, the emergency rate at which banks borrow money from the Fed. The Fed made clear that this in no way reflected a change in broader monetary policy or its economic outlook. This was simply a return to more normal levels for one Fed tool now that the financial crisis has eased. As a result, there was very little impact on mortgage rates. According to Fed officials, a move to begin to tighten overall monetary policy, which almost certainly would cause a significant reaction, is still expected to be at least several months away. The inflation data released this month continued to show low levels of current inflation, providing little pressure for the Fed to rush to take action.

The Employment report, the biggest economic report of the month, contained mixed news. Against a consensus forecast for a gain of 15K jobs, the economy lost -20K jobs in January. The big story, though, was an unexpected drop in the Unemployment Rate to 9.7% from 10.0% in December. Two separate sources of data are used to compute the change in jobs and the change in the unemployment rate, and during volatile periods the two methods can show widely divergent results. The decline in the unemployment rate in January was viewed as very good news by many economists, pointing to an improving labor market. On a more negative note, revisions to older data showed that the economy has lost 8.4 million jobs since the start of the recession in December 2007, from the previous reported level of 7.2 million.

While it is rarely a big market mover, this month's Consumer Confidence report shocked investors. The index declined to 46.0, far below the consensus forecast of 55.0, and the lowest level in nine months. Consumers are clearly worried about the labor market, and an increase in Jobless Claims in recent weeks has amplified the issue. The decline in confidence has potentially negative consequences for the economy. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity, and this data raises concerns about the level of future spending. Also, home sales suffer during periods of low consumer confidence, and the housing data released this week reflected consumer insecurity. Of course, slower economic growth is favorable for mortgage rates, which fell after the report came out.

The recession has impacted countries in different ways. Some of the hardest hit have been smaller European nations, such as Greece and Spain. As members of the European Union, they must adhere to certain restrictions which limit their flexibility to adjust domestic economic policy. As a result, some countries may be at risk of defaulting on government debt. Investors responded by buying relatively safer assets such as US bonds, including agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

A surprise announcement that China raised bank reserve requirements helped mortgage markets and hurt the stock market. The increase is a form of monetary tightening which is intended to slow economic growth in China. This likely means that China will buy fewer exports from other countries, slowing economic growth globally. Slower expected economic growth reduces inflationary pressures, which is positive for mortgage yields.

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