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Mortgage Rate Predictions

May 22, 2015 9:51AM PDT

Rate Update 5/22/2015 : What will mortgage interest rates do tomorrow? Mortgage professionals are voting in our daily poll. The Consumer Price Index came in strong this morning at +0.3 instead of the forecasted +0.2. The bond markets quickly reacted to this data, pushing mortgage rates slightly lower. Bond market liquidity has been forceful this morning, partially due to Memorial day weekend cutting today short. Yellen's speech at 1 pm ET will likely have a big impact on MBS. Expect mortgage rates to decrease in response.Thursday: MBS started rallying today. MBS started in positive territory and remained relatively unchanged after the jobless claims data. Initial jobless claims increased by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 274,000. Economists expected 271,000 new claims. Although applicants... More

Displaying rates for Mortgage Refinance in VA for $200,000

3.965%

APR
30 Year Fixed
3.750% Rate $926/mo
  • Updated May 23, 2015
  • From the lender: A+ Rating with the Better Business Bureau
Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates moved tentatively lower today as it was another good day for the bond and mortgage markets - however do not read too much into it. The pace was only slightly better than yesterday when it was all but undetectable. To those expecting more improvement based on trading levels in the bond markets that drive rates, it might seem a bit frustrating. No doubt it is nice but it is mostly short-covering ahead of Janet Yellen's speech...
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Linda Miller
The minutes from the Fed's April meeting, released yesterday, indicated that many Fed officials saw a June hike as unlikely.... NO SURPRISE. The market reaction was muted as the removal of the June rate hike has already been priced in, and there was very little in the way of new information. The hike is now a meeting by meeting decision, so every data release will bring increased volatility as the market looks to determine the likelihood of...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates ended the day very close to unchanged, following what was a supportive reading of the Fed's April Meeting Minutes. The big, nasty surprise that may have been lurking (potential rate hike arguments for June) was instead ruled out. The Fed noted that many members agreed that the economy was not likely to make a strong enough case for a June rate hike. That said, neither did the Minutes suggest the Fed was reevaluating their...
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Linda Miller
The market is reacting to headline housing starts this morning, which came out far better than expected. Bloomberg reports that April housing starts rose 20.2% to a 1.135 mln unit rate from an upwardly revised 944K unit rate in March. Building permits rose 10.1% to a 1.143 mln unit rate from a downwardly revised 1.038 mln unit rate in March. This is the biggest month/month percentage increase in housing starts since February 1991, while the 1.135...
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Bart Castelli
There is very little volatility in the US equity markets but the volatility in the bond and mortgage markets continues. Mortgage rates moved higher out of the gate for a second straight week, though today's jump was smaller than last Monday's. All of the price gains we had Friday and the decline in the 10yr note rate is all gone now. The 10yr at 2.24% up 10BPS as we saw Friday the 10yr lost 10BPS. What is causing the extreme volatility...
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Bart Castelli
Think interest rates increased this week and MBS prices dumped? Most likely you would think so, but that was not the case. It is the same pattern we had the week before, all the angst and hand-wringing amounted to nothing in the end. The week ended with the 10yr declining only 1BPS from last Friday and MBS declined just 25BPS. Numerous times I have noted that looking at markets on a week-to-week basis puts a different perspective on things. Take...
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Bart Castelli
Weekly claims came in lower than anticipated as most thought it would increase and it basically was stagnant. The four-week average, a less-volatile measure, was the lowest since April 2000. Firings and lay-offs have declined leading to markets expecting wage increases are just around the corner. Recent employment data confirms that the slowdown in Q1 was 'transitory' as the Fed defines it. Wholesale prices in April (PPI) were expected...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates saw another increase today, the 7th sessions out of 8 that interest rates have risen. The 10yr has gone from 1.92% to 2.24%, MBS prices have declined 191BPS since April 28th. After 30 sessions in a very tight range, as we noted when the range was still intact, when it broke it would be a huge and swift move in the direction of the break-out. At that point I along with a number of other economists were still slightly bullish for a...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates have not been friendly in the past week as we have seen that after nearly 30 days of no movement whatsoever, we have seen that in four out of the past six days have seen uncommonly big moves higher. These are the sorts of moves that we normally only see 2-3 times per month, so to see 4 of them in just over a week is alarming. The bond and mortgage markets are currently oversold on a very near term basis. All of the momentum...
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Linda Miller
Yesterday's Fed announcement was categorized by many as a non-event. The first paragraph of the Fed statement contained a few notable changes, but the overall message is very much the same. The fed used the words "transitory factors" when noting the weakness in the economics data recently. This offset the bearish tone of the data, suggesting that we had a few blips that will be corrected in the coming months. June seems to be all but taken...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates moved firmly up to their highest levels in the past six weeks. All the focus going into today was on the FOMC policy statement. Q1 GDP this morning was much softer than thought normally would have supported the fixed income markets like MBSs, but was pushed away. March pending home sales was in line with forecasts, also pushed aside by traders and investors. Even this afternoon's FOMC which was about what had been expected by...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates have had very little movement over the past 5-6 weeks - until today. This happens from time to time on the approach to events that have a lot of market movement potential such as the case with the FOMC Policy statement to be released at 1:00PM tomorrow. Even before the events themselves, markets began taking a 'lead-off' in one direction or the other. The time around, the lead-off happens to be toward higher rates. The...
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Chris Neuswanger
The turmoil of the world's economy has had one little heralded beneficiary. While governments have teetered on collapse, gold soared and plunged, and oil prices collapsed, the one group who benefited were borrowers whose interest rates were tied to the demand for US Treasury Bills. The largest single group were homeowners who had adjustable rate mortgages. These loans, while often fixed for the first five or seven years adjust annually...
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Bart Castelli
Rate markets a little better today after the strong selling took the 10yr to 1.98% from 1.91% on Tuesday. This morning March new home sales were lower than expected, with no noticeable reaction to the report. As I noted three months ago and many times since, any weakness in the economy is blamed mostly on the weather. Until we get April data the consensus is strong now that the economy will continue to improve. Greece wants acceleration in talks...
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Bart Castelli
After seven sessions with hardly any movement the 10yr today broke out, but not the direction I was expecting. The 10yr has ended the day at 1.98% and is now above both its 20 and 40 day averages we deem important. So far it is not serious yet, but now the 10yr and MBS rates are likely to increase more by a few more basis points to 2.02%. If that is violated, purely from a technical view, the 10yr may just climb to 2.20% before the next support...
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Prospect Financial Group San Deigo, CA
The VA loan is a very advantageous loan program offered to those tied to the American military. Some factors that make the VA loan one of the best on the market are its 100% financing options, low closing costs, forgiving loan standards, and below-market mortgage rates. VA mortgage rates are on average 0.375% lower than going rates for conventional loans. In addition, VA loans carry no monthly private mortgage insurance (PMI) unlike other...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates barely budged yet again today despite more volatility in underlying financial markets. It is really interesting to see my trading charts as yesterday's chart as it sits under my chart from today is mirrored in its pattern, of which was the same as I recall the day before. This is the same behavior and part of an even broader trend of minimal movement since the beginning of the month. US and Global stock markets were tagged...
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Kyle Jenkins
Freddie is boosting their last product before Fannie and Freddie meet their cap for the year. Even though we have just started the second quarter, originations started high this year. Fannie Mae ended February with $6.9 Billion in new business. Compared to last year's numbers, that is $4.5 Billion more in new business. Needless to say, both Fannie and Freddie are starting off strong with unpredicted numbers. For strong markets, Freddie is...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates were unchanged again today, continuing a trend of minimal movement that has been intact for all but one day in the last month. Rates are not much different now as they were then. Am I beginning to sound like a broken record? Within the near term trading range the 10yr and MBSs showed a little volatility. MBS prices started slightly lower this morning then about 10:00 selling took MBS prices down 16BPS and the 10yr ran up to 1.90%...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates seems to be fighting the resistant levels again this morning. March housing starts did not meet the expectations after dropping in the month of February. Permits were also released, but that figure was as expected as weather had a factor in those numbers. The housing sector continues to disappoint but the data on housing recently is mixed, some good, some weak. In February new home sales were the highest in seven years. Weekly...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly higher today, though that depends largely on the individual strategies of the lender in question. What we had was another narrow trading range today. The 10yr tried somewhat to move to 1.86% but once again failed. By the end of the day, it remained unchanged from yesterday with MBS prices also about unchanged. This afternoon the Fed released the Beige Book, Fed staffers saw moderate to modest improvement...
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Bart Castelli
March retail sales weaker than thought this morning, although up 0.9% markets were expecting +1.1%. Normally that kind of miss would not have any impact on markets but with three previous months of negative sales, that sales were soft sent the bond and mortgage markets into short covering. The 10yr yield dropped 7BPS this morning to 1.86%, as we noted this morning that level is a strong resistance level. The 10yr could not break 1.86% on the...
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Bart Castelli
Kind of a sleepy day, not much going on that moved stocks or the interest rate markets today. There were no significant economic releases today, a story that has lasted from a week ago continued today. That will not occur again this week. Tomorrow March retail sales, March PPI, and February business inventories. Retail sales have not been impressive since last November. Another weak sales report tomorrow would drive interest rates lower and...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates increased somewhat this week, as the 10yr tested the key support at 2.00%. There was not much data this week - and what there was was about what markets were expecting. IMS services sector index on Monday and weekly jobless claims yesterday. The FOMC minutes released Wednesday did not add anything to the drum beat of higher rates coming. The big downer for prices this week came from the three Treasury auctions that had less demand...
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Bart Castelli
If I tell you that the March employment report this morning was not much of a surprise to myself - I might be bending the truth a little bit. Long-time readers of my blog are well aware that employment is always a system shock, especially to myself, as the direction of the misses compared to estimates is a keystone for the BLS data. This time around the misses are supporting more decline in interest rates. The "consensus" for non-farm jobs was an...
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Bart Castelli
The bond and MBS markets lost some ground today, as mortgage rates bounced a little lower which is nothing unusual ahead of the employment report. Traders were taking profits and hedging against the data. I recommended locking in this morning's report. I am still bullish but not interested in blind trading. There is not anything more I have to say this today. The employment report tomorrow is all markets are thinking about. The estimate is...
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Bart Castelli
It was another good day for making money and floating. Mortgage rates fell again today at a faster pace than seen in the last few days. The data this morning was weak, as has been most data in the last month. ADP job growth was off, March ISM manufacturing index was soft, and now the numbers I am hearing for Friday's employment data is non-farm jobs at 200K from 247K that was originally estimated. No progress with Iran nukes - surprise!...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates had one of their least exciting days of the week today, moving just modestly lower from yesterday's latest levels. After this week's volatility, today it was a rest period. Q4 GDP was a none event coming in where it had been expected and its old data, the U. of Michigan sentiment index was better than expected compared to two weeks ago. Neither got any response with Q2 ending next Tuesday. This week's market moving...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates rose rapidly today, almost completely erasing the improvement following last week's Fed Announcement. In this world of interest rates a few days can be a life time. Yesterday and again today most of the driving news is coming from the Mid-East - Yemen under assault from rebels, Shiites and Sunnis at war as civil wars throughout the region are heating up, though so far, markets are just watching for the most part. Eventually...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates unfortunately took off in the wrong direction after my morning commentary, something that has not been done for nearly two weeks. This morning both the bond and MBS markets were acting a little peculiar. The stock indexes were under pressure but there was no movement into treasuries. At Noon the hammer dropped when the results of the 5yr note auction were released, which showed that the demand for this note was the weakest in the...
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James Brooks
By James Brooks The bond market is down 4/32 (1.91%), we should see a increase in today's mortgage rates by .125 of a point. February's Durable Goods Orders report was posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning. The Commerce Department announced a 1.4% decline in new orders for big-ticket products. Because analysts were expecting a small increase, we can consider the data favorable for bonds and mortgage pricing. However, since this data is...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates fell again today, as the Treasuries and MBS's put in another good day. The 10yr is now at 1.88% and the 30yr MBSs up 33BPS today. The stock indexes ended lower today but given the wide swings we call this a quiet one. Equity markets beginning to look top-heavy, with a possible correction coming. Equities are selling off, but the Euro remains stronger and WTI Crude is up. These three markets have tended to be correlated lately....
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates seemed to settled down today - a little more civil compared to the last three days, except for the currency and oil markets. The dollar is continuing to decrease and oil is giving back most of its recent decline. Stocks are doing their thing, another triple digit day for the DJIA. The bond and mortgage markets compared to currencies and stock put in a quiet session - both saw a little improvement but not the kind of swings we saw...
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Dan the loanman
March 17, 2015 We Call a Bottom It is not often that we go out on a limb and make a prediction about the future. That is because one of our favorite sayings is -- you can't predict the future. However, sometimes we just can't resist. What bottom are we predicting? The rate of home ownership in America. It has been falling for nearly a decade and in the fourth quarter of 2014, it hit the lowest level in over two decades at 63.9 percent,...
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prospect Financial Group San Deigo, CA
The IRS Form 1098, or Mortgage Insurance Statement form, is used to report the mortgage interest you received in the course of that tax year. A mortgage, for tax purposes, is a loan secured by your primary home, second home, home equity loans, or refinanced mortgage. The home can be a house, condominium, cooperative, mobile home, boat, or similar property, but it must carry out vital functions of a home such as having sleeping space, bathroom...
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Bart Castelli
There is a reason why I do not gamble as today is a perfect example that even though I was in the minority stating that this should happen, when it comes to giving advice to people about their biggest monthly expense, I tend to be conservative and let them know of the risks versus the rewards. Today was one of those days. Mortgage rates plummeted today, relatively speaking. While the average improvement might not look like much at face value, it...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates continue a little bit lower again today, extending a recent winning streak that has seen improvements on 6 out of the past 7 days. It was about what was expected today, as there was very little to no movement in the bond and mortgage markets ahead of the FOMC tomorrow. I have said about all there is to say about the Fed - the word patience, and how the FOMC will decide to confuse markets a little more. The overwhelming view is the...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates fell modestly to begin the week following several weaker-than-expected economic reports. Treasuries tried to improve today as the 10yr note yield declined 4 basis points to 2.07% this morning but it could not hold against the force of FOMC on Wednesday. The stock market rallied but I do not give it much credit, volatility is very high and the key indexes are just swinging in wide interday day ranges and still are essentially...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates - to spell uncertainty, begin with using the letter V. Stocks and bonds are demonstrating increased interday and intraday volatility these days. I expected it and warned it would continue for weeks as investors face the Fed, the strong dollar and declining global growth. Interest rate markets moving in wide swings this week, with the stock market leading the way. Next week the FOMC meeting with most, including a number of Fed...
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Bart Castelli
Did I mention increased market volatility yesterday? Today both stocks and bonds are volatile with stock indexes quite weak and treasuries and MBSs are doing better adding to the improvements from yesterday. The 10yr at 10:00AM is at 2.13% down 4 BPS and MBS prices are 33 BPS higher than yesterday's improvement. What a difference from Friday's fiasco. It is all about what the Fed will do and when and what is occurring in Europe and...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates recovered a little bit of the heavy losses that occurred on Friday. Not much happening today for the bond market. Through the session not much movement at all as traders and investors continue to digest the increase of jobs against the quality of the jobs and that 62.8% of workers participating in the market. Truly a continuing mixed take away from the monthly employment data. Jobs growing over 200K a month and the unemployment...
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Prospect Financial Group San Deigo, CA
If you're thinking about buying a home, how much you'll be able to afford as a downpayment is probably one of the first things you consider. A downpayment is the amount of money you pay upfront, which equates to the initial equity you have in the home. In almost every case, the bigger your downpayment, the less you'll have to spend on the rest of your loan. A 20% downpayment will get you the best conventional rates on the market,...
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Linda Miller
Mortgages are mixed this morning. Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Mortgage Applications were up 0.1% for the week ending February 27. That's compared to the previous week's decline of 3.5%. Jobs... Jobs... Jobs... ADP Employment Change came in at 212K vs. 219K consensus and effectively flat vs. 213K in December. Recently, ADP has been underestimating on average by 32K, of the last 5 reports 3 were underestimated to the 2...
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Bart Castelli
Interest rates continue to increase, on initial thought you might think we are crying wolf too much. Since 2/25 we have been saying rates will increase, so far that has proven correct; however we also pointed to key technical resistance above the current rates. Today we are there with the 10yr testing its 100 day average and a down trend line, all market momentum now is bearish. The last time the 10yr got to these levels was 2/17, then prices...
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Bart Castelli
Not a good day for the bond and mortgage markets. A particularly vicious wave of selling hit the U.S. Treasury market between rights after the opening bell all the way up to late morning. The selling was focused in the 10yr note and 30yr bond. The stock market rallied today with attention on the NASDAQ testing 5000. It has been 15 years since the index traded there - thanks Apple. The bond and MBS markets turned negative on Feb 6th- and since...
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Bart Castelli
What has been the worst month for mortgage rates in nearly two years, the market was able to scrape together some modest gains to end the month. Looks like the 10yr has closed out the week at 1.99%. This morning a too weak Chicago purchasing managers index - too weak because traders are not giving it much attention. Both the bond and MBS markets initially shrugged off both reports this morning but this afternoon improvement in both markets....
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Jason Vondrak
When buying a loan, it's important to understand your options and choose a program that's best for your unique situation. Today, homeowners have two main options: the fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) and the adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM). So what's the difference between the two? The names pretty much say it all. For the FRM, your interest rate is fixed for the life of the loan. With the ARM, your interest can change over time. Fixed...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates were a bit higher this afternoon after the three reports this morning showed mix results. The market ignored the data that was released, but started to retreat after the poor showing of the 7yr note auction ended. This is the second day in a row where the demand was weak as shown with the 5yr the previous day. This morning the bellwether 10yr traded as low as 1.94% but after the 7yr auction and with GDP in the morning the rate...
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Bart Castelli
Very quiet today compared to the intraday volatility last week. The MBS market price changed very little since the open this morning as I gather the roller coaster was not out today. From my report this morning, the 10yr did decrease to 2.06%, another 3BPS. Today's only data point, January existing home sales were softer than expected. It cannot be blamed on the harsh weather in the East and Mid-west, most of the decline in sales came from...
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Conrad Ellestad
There has been some great news lately if you have financed a FHA loan within the past couple years. I am sure you are tired of paying that high premium every month that will be staying on your loan for the entire life of the loan. As of January 26th, 2015 the Government finally did home owners a favor and assisted in helping them instead of gouging them with fees. Mortgage Insurance has gone from 1.35% of your loan size loan down to.85% of the...
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