Monday, November 18, 2013 - Article by: Joe Shamie - First Choice Loan Services -
Monday - November 18, 2013, 10:22 am ET
Current Trend Direction: Higher
Float/Lock Bias:Cautiously FloatingCurrent Price of FNMA 4.0% Bond: $104.97, +22bp
Mortgage Bonds continue to edge higher, and 10 days after the blowout on Jobs Report Friday, prices are "back" to where they were headed into the release. But take note looking at the chart, you must take into account a 47bp rollover, which has skewed the Candle.
Two Fed members will be speaking around the nation today. New York Fed President Dudley (12:15pm ET, voter, dove) and Philadelphia Fed President Plosser (1:30pm, voter, hawk). The content of these speeches could add some volatility to the markets.
The rest of the week's economic calendar is a cornucopia of releases with readings on inflation, Retail Sales, housing, and manufacturing - throw in the Fed minutes on Wednesday from the October 30 meeting, and you have a recipe for some increased volatility.
Also in the "Black" are Stocks, which continue their incredible rise, thanks to QE3Unlimited. The S&P 500 hit yet another record high on Friday of 1,798 after incoming Fed Chief signaled last week at her confirmation hearing that QEUnlimited will live on in its current form.
With Mortgage Bonds "Back in Black" after getting clobbered back on Jobs Report Friday....now what? Look at the technical - the Bond is within a few basis points of both the 25-day and 200-day Moving Average ceilings of resistance. We are still floating but more carefully as prices approach this resistance layer. We think there is a good chance prices bust above this ceiling.
Joe Shamie NMLS # 241432
First Choice Loan Services NMLS # 210764
First Choice Bank NMLS# 177877
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