Tuesday - February 18, 2014 10:56 am ET

Current Trend Direction: Sideways, just beneath resistance at the 200-day Moving Average

Float/Lock Bias: Carefully Floating

Current Price of FNMA 4.0% Bond: $104.19 +3bp

Mortgage Bonds begin the holiday shortened week near unchanged levels, despite a weak reading from manufacturing activity in the New York region along with flat Stock prices. The Bond markets traded lower last week as Stock prices recorded their best week of the year.

The New York Federal Reserve reported this morning that the Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to 4.48 in February versus the 7.5 expected and down from the 12.5 recorded in January. Within the report it showed that the new orders index fell to zero, while the employment component were little changed with slightly longer workweeks.

Lousy weather is attributed towards the weaker than expected economic data in December, January and February, but it is WINTER.

We will begin the week carefully floating as the 4% coupon continues to trade near support at the 200-day Moving Average. But be on guard, if prices slip meaningfully beneath the 200-day MA, we will switch to locking in a hurry.

Joe Shamie NMLS # 241432

First Choice Loan Services NMLS # 210764

First Choice Bank NMLS# 177877

866-970-3400 x-5135

jshamie@fcbmtg.com