Monday - March 3, 2014, 10:50 am ET

Current Trend Direction: Higher

Float/Lock Bias: Start day carefully floating

Current Price of FNMA 4.0% Bond: $104.91, +10bp

This morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared to invade Ukraine to protect its Russian interests and citizens. The turmoil is driving some safe haven investment movement into the Bond and Gold markets today, while pushing global and domestic Stock markets lower. However, it is worth noting that Mortgage Bonds are now only slightly higher and off their best levels.

Over here in the States, economic data had little impact on the markets. Personal Incomes rose by 0.3%, inline with expectations while Spending rose by 0.4%, above the 0.1% expected. Inflation, as measured by the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure, was inline at 0.1%, while the year-over-year Core ticked down to 1.1% from 1.2%. Inflation is still a non-issue.

The ISM Manufacturing Index in February rose to 53.2, above the 51.6 expected and comes after Friday's positive Chicago PMI report. The big report this week is Friday's February Jobs Report. It is expected that employers added 163K jobs last month, after the anemic number of job creations in December (75K) and January (113).

Technically, the 4% coupon is trading near levels seen in early February, November and October. Each time prices have hit those levels, the have retreated and fell. We are starting the day carefully floating, but looking ahead, we will likely be locking in advance of Friday's Jobs Report, so get your clients lined up and ready to lock later this week.

Joe Shamie NMLS # 241432

First Choice Loan Services NMLS # 210764

First Choice Bank NMLS# 177877

866-970-3400 x-5135

jshamie@fcbmtg.com