Tuesday, March 4, 2014 - Article by: Joe Shamie - First Choice Loan Services -
Tuesday - March 4, 2014, 11:25 am ET
Current Trend Direction: Higher, but signs of topping out
Float/Lock Bias: Start day carefully floating
Current Price of FNMA 4.0% Bond: $104.88, -28bp
Reports that Russia's President Vladimir Putin has declared that there is no need yet to invade Ukraine is pushing Stocks are considerably higher this morning, while pressuring the Bond markets lower. It is worth noting that this situation is volatile and far from over meaning that things could easily swing for worse once again, thereby supporting a safe haven Bond trade.
There are no economic reports due for release today, but traders will begin positioning themselves ahead of Friday's closely watched February Jobs Report. More on that as the week progresses.
In housing news, CoreLogic reported that home prices, including distressed sales, rose by 12% in January 2014 compared to January 2013, which marks the 23rd consecutive month of year-over-year prices gains. The 12% year-over-year gain in January is up from the 11% rise recorded from December 2012 to December 2013. In addition, prices increased 0.9% month-over-month from December to January. CoreLogic said "price growth like this should continue as the market comes out of hibernation for the spring buying season."
Technically, as we mentioned yesterday, "the 4% coupon is trading near levels seen in early February, November and October. Each time prices have hit those levels, they have retreated and fell." As we draw closer to Friday's February Jobs Report, get your clients lined up and ready to lock late Thursday afternoon. Headline risk coupled with the lofty Bond prices, make it an easy decision to lock ahead of this highly volatile impact report.
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