Friday, March 28, 2014 - Article by: James Brooks - Polaris Home Funding Corp -
By James Brooks
The bond market is currently down 3/32, but we should see little change in this today's mortgage rates due to strength late yesterday that is offsetting today's losses.
Yesterday's 7-year Treasury Note auction went fairly well but not as good as Wednesday's 5-year Note sale. The benchmarks we use to measure investor demand for the securities showed a decent level of interest. That may have contributed to some of the improvement in bonds that we saw late yesterday. It wasn't enough of a move to cause a lot of lenders to issue intra-day price improvements but it could have led to some. If your lender improved rates late yesterday, you are likely going to see a slight increase this morning. If yours was in the majority that sat still, you should see little change between yesterday today's and this today's pricing.
February's Personal Income & Outlays report was posted at 8:30 AM ET today. The Commerce Department announced that personal income rose 0.3% last month as did personal spending. The income reading was slightly higher than forecasts of a 0.2% rise and the increase in spending matched predictions. This data is relevant to the bond and mortgage markets because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, but is not a market mover. Rising income means consumers have more money to spend, fueling economic growth. Today's readings didn't draw much concern or joy in stocks or bonds since the data was close to expectations and the report is not considered to be a key piece of data.
Late this morning, the University of Michigan posted their revised Consumer Sentiment Index for March. It came in at 80.0 that pegged forecasts and nearly matched the preliminary estimate of 79.9. This means that consumer sentiment about their own financial and employment situations changed little from March's earlier estimate. That makes the data neutral towards mortgage rates.
Next week beings us the release of a handful of economic reports that may affect mortgage rates, including two highly important reports that are likely to cause movement in broader markets. Monday has nothing too concerned scheduled. Fed Chairman Yellen is expected to speak in Chicago late morning, although the topic doesn't appear to be a threat to the financial or mortgage markets. Still, anytime she is speaking, traders will be listening and may react.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...
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