Tuesday, April 22, 2014 - Article by: Bart Castelli - Homestar Financial Corporation NMLS #70864 -
This morning we have started off very quietly as there is very little if anything of any consequence that would move the markets. US earnings are in full swing as half are already out with their reports. Both the 10yr and Mortgage backed Securities are relatively flat as well.
Not that it matters, but Joe Biden is in Ukraine saying "Russia should stick to its international commitments and obligations," Mr. Yatsenyuk said. "They should not behave as gangsters in the modern century." He warned Russia to pull back its forces along the Ukrainian border and publicly demand pro-Russian forces release occupied government buildings in the east, or he said Moscow will face additional economic sanctions in the coming days. A lot of rhetoric with no substance or force behind in other than sanctions that may harm the EU and not impact the US much.
So far there has been little reaction to both the Housing Price Index - still increasing but is lower than what the increase was a year ago, and the March existing home sales were pretty much in line on what was expected. This afternoon we have the 2yr Treasury auction.
The recent increase in the rate on the 10yr has turned most of our technical indicators from slighly bullish to slightly bearish. As note here previously, in this kind of generally flat market we don't pay too much attention to the momentum oscillators. It takes very little movement to change the technical outlook. The longer outlook though is still bearish for rates with the Fed ending monthly purchases of treasury's and MBSs and belief the economy and inflation will begin to increase---a view we still question but we don't fight the tape. Stock indexes refuse to break, earnings a little better, and the Fed repeating its continuing support as long as needed.
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