Wednesday, June 4, 2014 - Article by: Bart Castelli - Homestar Financial Corporation NMLS #70864 -
Mortgage rates were higher yet again today. This time around, the move wasn't quite as brisk as the past few days. The most prevalently quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for best-case scenarios is 4.25%, though 4.375% is close to give a rebate.
Tomorrow is potentially a very big day with the release of data that financial markets have been very anxious about. The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to do "something." No one knows exactly what that will be, but the best guess is that it involves cutting policy rates. From there, they may also announce other liquidity measures (so-called 'long-term refinancing operations' or LTROs). There's an outside chance they'll even embark on some form of asset purchases similar to quantitative easing in the US.
The point is that there are a lot of variables with respect to tomorrow's ECB news. Depending on what they do (or don't do), as well as the comments during the press-conference (early morning) markets could react in a big way. From there, the hugely important Employment Situation report on Friday morning could either add to the momentum, or counteract it. Either way, the prospects for volatility are as high as they've been so far in 2014. There's no way to know how rates will move over the next 2 days, but the moves could be big.
In summary, unless you are looking for the thrill of a gamble, there is no reason to do anything but LOCK at this point. Rates have moved back into a position where the next move can go either way and the next 2 days data will be the impetus.
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