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Bart Castelli

Mortgage Rates Pushing Rates into the Three's

Tuesday, November 25, 2014 - Article by: Bart Castelli - Homestar Financial Corporation NMLS #70864 - Message

Mortgage rates pushed rates even better than the previous few days as we finally have seen some changes in the rate than just fees. We are now seeing the three's even come into play more so than yesterday, even though the most prevalently quoted conforming 30yr fixed rates for top tier borrowers was still at 4.0%, 3.875% was better than yesterday with lessor fees and 3.875% is coming into the picture as well.. than what was quoted yesterday as a tease.

Finally the break-out we have been waiting for. The 10yr broke the 2.30% range and settled in at 2.26% for the close. Next level to break, the 2.20% - and that may not be out of the picture. This morning the reports looked good, but the data was not. There were revisions in Q2 that should send out a red flag.

Consumer confidence unexpectedly declined in November to a five-month low as Americans became less upbeat about the economy and the labor market. October's reading was the strongest we had seen since 2007, but fell dramatically with today's number as Americans feel less upbeat. Treasury sold $35Bof 5yr notes this afternoon with another strong demand from investors. And crude oil fell to its lowest price in four years as OPEC prepares to meet in Vienna.

Technicals are now bullish after weeks of narrow trading. If the 10yr hits the new resistant level, expect mortgage rates to follow. Volatility may increase tomorrow as a lot of data is coming out. We might see a change towards the old level of 2.30% as the holiday weekend is upon us.

In summary, today was the best day we have had in a while. It is easy to love the current trends in rates, which has been mostly positive for much of the month of November. But it is the holiday season and can also be outside the scope of the longer term trend. Next week brings a new month packed with holidays and always important market moving economic data. Lock if you are within 15 days, and float until you do not want to take any more risk - but do not look back if you just hold out.

Remember, if you want to know the benefits of locking your rate today versus floating, simply give me a call at 314-744-7806 or visit my website at I have access to real time Wall Street data and instant market alerts with breaking news that I monitor throughout the day to assist us on making the informed decision.

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