Monday, December 8, 2014 - Article by: Bart Castelli - Homestar Financial Corporation NMLS #70864 -
Mortgage rates improved nicely today to begin the new week after the turbulence we had last week. There was some resistance after the strong Jobs Report last week, but after all was said and done, the most prevalently quoted conforming 30yr fixed rates for top tier borrowers was still at 4.0%, but 3.875%came back into the picture by the end of the day.
US stocks saw selling through the day; the 10yr and MBSs rallied. The stock decline in the wider look was not much given the huge gains over the last few months; the bond market focusing more on what is happening in the rest of the world, and it isn't good as we have been saying for months. Crude oil is continuing to fall, some traders thinking crude might improve after OPEC refused to cut production, kind of like sell the rumor, buy the fact. How much more crude will fall has oil traders perplexed as the price is lower now than what most were expecting. The question is, is the price falling because of excess production, or is it falling because demand is weakening as consumers worldwide worry over economic improvement that isn't happening? No matter, the November employment headlines last Friday, job creation in the US is still in the low wage sector. As long as markets continue to ignore internals in the employment data the headlines do look good.
With global economies dragging along how much longer can the US markets hold up? Not sure, but we are sure that the US cannot continue to expand as most US analysts believe. Consumer spending is still weak, although we haven't seen the sales figures from retailers this week on Christmas shopping. Consumers (the majority of the population) are not likely to be led into another hole by all those bullish outlooks. Last Friday October revolving credit, the use of credit cards that would suggest optimism about the future, increased just $922 mil, about what some on Wall Street make in a year. Ignoring reality won't last much longer----and is why we believe US interest rates will not increase and will decline a little from present levels.
In summary, the selloff following the NFP did not flow into Monday. Bonds actually approved throughout today's session.. Tomorrows rates should start off strong and should look more attractive. Let's hope today's rally may have been contributed to the equity sell off. Keep a close eye on the stock market for if they mount a rally bonds and rates may suffer.
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