Friday, January 2, 2015 - Article by: Linda Miller - Supreme Lending -
It could be a very happy 2015... Freddie Mac's U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook predicts the home-purchase market to strengthen along with the economy in 2015.
Falling gas prices will likely boost consumer confidence and rents are rising faster than home prices. As the demographic wave of Millennials ages another year, more of them will start families and look to buy homes of their own.
We end last year with the stock markets reaching record highs and have been fortunate to have mortgage rates bouncing along record low levels.
We don't expect these super low rates to last. With the strength the US economy is showing, some experts are beginning to predict that the first Fed rate increase could come as early as April. Freddie Mac projects mortgage rates to average 4.60% by mid-year and inch up to 5.00% by the end of the year. But rates starting to move up could motivate many lookers to become buyers so this might not be a bad thing and will mean the economy is improving.
Mortgage rates opened lower this morning on what is expected to be a light trading day with poor liquidity as we move later into the day. Markit US Manufacturing PMI was lower than expected at 53.9 but only slightly, considering the 54.0 estimate.
Construction Spending was disappointing, declining 0.3% month-over-month while expectations were for an increase of 0.4%. Last month's increase was 1.1% and was revised upward to 1.2% today. Public spending was the main factor in the lackluster number so not too troubling for the broader economic outlook.
ISM Manufacturing was also weaker than expected at 55.5 vs. a 57.5 consensus. Details of the report showed New Orders and Inventories down while Employment was up to its highest level since August. This should lead the expected Nonfarm Payroll number higher as estimates are already strong at 240K.
ISM Prices Paid were the lowest since June 2012 and clearly reflective of oil's sizable pullback.
Happy New Year! Hope you all have recovered from your holiday festivities and inhibitions! Next week's Nonfarm Payroll is an important report and has been moved to next Friday instead of today as a result of the New Year Holiday yesterday.
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