Monday, July 13, 2015 - Article by: Bart Castelli - Homestar Financial Corporation NMLS #70864 -
Mortgage rates did not move much today, even though if one would look how the market opened, one would have thought it would have been a bad day with rates. The stock market rallied, but the bond and mortgage markets ended about unchanged from Friday's levels. As I mentioned, this morning on the knee jerk reaction to the potential Greek deal - the 10yr yield jumped and MBSs went down big time, but as the day progressed, yields held and prices improved. Greece is as slippery as grease can be - who knows what to expect? If there were any kind of actual consensus we would not be experiencing this kind of intraday price volatility. Will the Greek parliament agree? Will the German parliament agree?
Tomorrow back to US domestic data after last week's dearth. June retail sales, June export and import prices and May business inventories. Retail sales is the elephant that everyone will be keying on.
Not really a market mover yet - the Iran nuclear talks hit another snag - again. Every time they get close Iran balks and the US backs off. How do let Iran pursue building nuclear weapons while saying you are not doing so?
How will the markets treat domestic data this week? Greece is never going to completely go away and there is no approved plans that will guarantee Greece will stay in the EU. Beside a lot of key data points this week Janet Yellen will face Congress twice this week, she does not have a very solid relationship with legislatures - actually it is not her personally. Congress wants a piece of the decision process - lord help us if that happens.
In summary, time to go to confession - I have no idea what the bond market will do tomorrow, or any other day as long as Greece is in the headlight. High levels of volatility these sessions keeps me guessing like most everyone else, at least I am willing to admit it, should get a small amount of credit for honesty and confessing.
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