Monday, August 17, 2015 - Article by: James Brooks -
By James Brooks
The bond market is currently up 12/32 (2.15%), which should improve today's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.
There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today, so I would not be surprised to see a fairly calm day. The rest of the week brings us four pieces of monthly economic data with one being considered highly important. In addition to the economic data, the minutes from the last FOMC meeting will also be posted mid-week.
The first piece of data will be July's Housing Starts is the first at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow, which will give us an indication of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand. It usually doesn't cause much movement in mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Tomorrow's release is expected to show an increase in construction starts of new homes. The lower the number of starts, the better the news for the bond market, as it would indicate a weaker than expected housing sector.
Overall, Wednesday is likely to be the most active day for mortgage rates with the CPI and FOMC minutes scheduled while Friday appears to be the best candidate for least important. Stocks will probably be a contributing factor to bond movement several days with little key economic data scheduled this week. I believe bond yields are going to be making a move one direction or another very soon. Unfortunately, it is my opinion that the risk of moving higher outweighs the potential gains of floating for a lower rate. Therefore, I would still proceed cautiously if floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now.
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