Wednesday, November 2, 2016 - Article by: James Brooks -
By James Brooks
The bond market is currently up 4/32 (1.81%), which should improve today's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.
Today's only relevant economic data came at 8:15 AM ET when October's ADP Employment report was released. It showed that 147,000 new private sector jobs were added to the economy last month, falling short of the 165,000 that was expected. That headline number appears to be good news for bonds. However, offsetting that number was a sizable upward revision to September's payrolls (+48,000) that caused some confusion. I would like to say that this report is good news and gives us optimism that Friday's governmental version will come in softer than expected, but today's release caused more head-scratching than anything else.
Later today we have the adjournment of this week's FOMC meeting to deal with. It is widely expected that the Fed will not make a change to key short-term interest rates at this time. Chairperson Janet Yellen and friends have indicated they expect to make a rate hike before the end of the year, but it would come as a major surprise if it came today. The Fed traditionally does not make changes to monetary policy close to a presidential election. Therefore, the consensus is that the rate hike will come during December's FOMC meeting. The meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM ET, so any reaction will come during mid-afternoon trading. This meeting does not include economic projections or a press conference, however the post-meeting statement will be analyzed closely by market participants for confirmation that a rate hike will indeed come next month.
Look for an update to this report shortly after the markets have an opportunity to react to the FOMC meeting statement. There are a couple of economic reports set for release tomorrow, although none of them are considered to be highly important or potential market movers. They will be addressed in this afternoon's revision.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now.
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