Thursday, November 10, 2016 - Article by: James Brooks -
By James Brooks
The bond market is currently down 13/32 (2.10%), which means another increase to mortgage rates. There were widespread rate increases intraday yesterday as stocks moved higher and bonds continued to slide. The net difference between today's rates and yesterday's morning pricing should be approximately .500 of a discount point. Just how much of an increase you will see this morning depends on how many and the size of the revisions your lender made yesterday afternoon.
Today's only economic data was last week's unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They showed that 254,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down from the previous week's 265,000 initial claims. Analysts were expecting to see 262,000 new filings, making the data bad news for bonds and mortgage pricing. However, this data is not relevant today considering the significant volatility in the financial markets over the past two days.
We also have the 30-year Treasury Bond auction later today. As expected, yesterday's 10-year Note sale went quite poorly with the benchmarks showing little demand for the securities. There is no reason to believe today's sale will do much better. Therefore, don't look for this event to provide some relief this afternoon from the rapidly rising bond yields and spike in mortgage rates. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so if there is a reaction it will come during early afternoon trading.
Tomorrow morning does bring us this week's only monthly economic data, although it likely will not draw much attention. November's preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment will be posted late tomorrow morning. This index measures consumer confidence, which gives us an indication of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a reading of 87.5, up a little from October's final reading of 87.2. That would be considered negative news for bonds because rising sentiment means consumers are more optimistic about their own financial situations and are more likely to make large purchases in the near future. And with consumer spending so important, any related data is watched closely. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for mortgage shoppers.
It is also worth noting that the bond market will be closed tomorrow in observance of the Veterans Day holiday. The stock markets will be open for trading, but most banks should be closed. The bond market will reopen Monday morning for regular hours.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now.
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