By James Brooks

The bond market is down 4/32 (2.39%), which should increase today's mortgage rates by .125 of a discount point.

There is nothing of importance set for today. The rest of the week brings us the release of only four pieces of economic data that are likely to influence mortgage rates in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions. Most of the data that is scheduled this week is considered to be highly important though. It is a holiday-shortened week with only three and a half trading days for the bond market.

Tomorrow has the first of this week’s two Treasury auctions that have a decent chance of affecting mortgage rates. There is a 10-year Treasury Note sale tomorrow and a 30-year Bond sale Wednesday. We could see some weakness in bonds this afternoon as participating firms sell current holdings to prepare for the auctions. This weakness is usually only temporary if the sales are met with a decent demand. The results of the auctions will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If the demand from investors was strong, the bond market could rally during afternoon trading, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the sales were met with a poor demand, the afternoon weakness may cause upward revisions to mortgage rates.

The bond market is expected to close early Thursday ahead of the Good Friday holiday. The stock and bond markets will be closed all day Friday and will reopen for regular trading Monday. It is common to see some pressure in bonds as investors make moves to protect themselves over the long holiday, so don't be surprised if bonds weaken slightly early Thursday afternoon before closing. This is particularly true since there is significant data being released Friday when the markets are closed.

Overall, Thursday will be the most important day of the week even though there is more important data being posted Friday morning. Due to the holiday, the markets won’t be able to react to that data until next Monday. This leaves Thursday as the best candidate for most active day in mortgage rates. I suspect we will see the earlier part of the week be fairly calm but get more active as it progresses.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now.