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Mark Hemingway

Mortgage Market Update for June 7th

Friday, June 7, 2019 - Article by: Mark Hemingway - Security Financial Services, LLC - Message

And the survey says: 75,000 jobs created in May, well below the 180,000 expected. Downward revisions to March and April erased 75,000 jobs from what was previously reported. Job growth is averaging 164,000 in 2019, down from 229,000 over the same period in 2018. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.6%, the Labor Force Participation Rate unchanged at 62.8%.

Total unemployed or the U6 number fell to 7.1% from 7.7% in May 2018 and was the lowest reading since December 2000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month-over-month versus the 0.3% expected while year-over-year wages grew at a 3.1% pace and have been edging lower. Overall, a disappointing report but the markets will wait for June's data before a slowdown is declared.

One thing is for sure - a Fed rate cut to the benchmark Fed Funds Rate is coming. The soft Jobs Report increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in July to 78%. By year end, there is a 99% chance the Fed Funds Rate will be lower than current levels. What does it mean? Well - first off, Stocks love rate cuts and continue to rally this week on the notion the Fed will cut. If money flows aggressively into Stocks, it could be at the expense of Bonds.

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