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Rate Watch 4-5-2011

Tuesday, April 5, 2011 - Article by: Kirsten - Town Square Financial - Message

Owner Occupied only - call me for Investment or Jumbo pricing

FNMA LOANS TO $417,000.00 FHA LOANS TO $271,050


* 30 Year Fixed 4.875%, APR 5.082%, 80% LTV, with escrows and 1% origination fee, 740 Middle FICO score
* 20 Year Fixed 4.725%, APR 5.030%, 80% LTV, with escrows and 1% origination fee, 740 Middle FICO score
* 15 Year Fixed 4.125%, APR 4.475%, 80% LTV, with escrows and 1% origination fee, 740 Middle FICO score
* FHA 30 Yr Fixed 4.625%, APR 5.626%, 96.5% LTV, with escrows and 1% origination fee, 640 Middle FICO score
* FHA 15 Yr Fixed 4.00%, APR 5.057%, 96.5% LTV, with escrows and 1% origination fee, 640 Middle FICO score
* VA 30 Yr Fixed 4.75%, APR 5.048%, 100 LTV, with escrows and 1% origination fee, 640 Middle FICO score

Economic News:

Bernanke's comments in his speech (April 4th in Atlanta) shows the increasing division within the Fed about how long to continue keeping the Federal Funding rate at zero to +0.25% as it has since 2008; for the last couple of weeks one after another Fed officials have increasingly warned the US should end its tightening and begin to increase rates soon. Bernanke saying present inflation pressures in commodities and energy prices being "transitory" is his apparent response to the increasing concerns within the Fed. Bernanke remains convinced the economic recovery is not yet on solid ground, remarks like he made last night may be his way of jaw-boning the bond market from sending prices lower and yields higher. We don't rally have to say it but, if rates increase even a little the depressed housing sector will be further constrained. Will the markets buy Bernanke's "transitory" view about inflation? Back in the day he also said the sub prime mortgage markets were likely to be contained and managed. Is the US immune to inflation? Brazil , Russia , China , India , likely the European Union on Thursday and emerging market countries all increasing rates. Answer: No.

The latest headwind for the US Bond market is the US Budget deficit, and just yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said he sees "severe hardships" ahead if the US Debt Ceiling is not raised. He went on to say that the US will reach this ceiling of $14.29T on May 16th, and we won't have the ability to borrow beyond that date. This may be a bit of a scare tactic to get Congress to raise the debt ceiling - which we think it will. But the battle is raging between "older" members of Congress and several Freshman Congressional members, who are saying they will not raise the Debt ceiling without significant cuts in spending. As a country we obviously want to avoid the problems of Greece and Portugal and getting our arms around our unsustainable deficit is the first step. The Bond market would likely embrace tough austerity measures as it protects the values of Bonds. But greater spending with no offset of cuts and/or higher revenues will likely apply pressure on Bonds.

For the fourth time in five months, China hiked lending rates by .25% in an effort to slow down economic growth and fight inflation. The move could lead to slower global economic growth, and this is weighing on Stocks so far today.

Crude oil is lower today after reaching 30 month highs; with China increasing interest rates and oil supplies seen as increasing oil is a little lower today. That said, it is highly unlikely the demand for oil will decline regardless of increasing rates and China trying to slow its economy. Oil supplies won't likely increase enough to offset the coming summer driving season and the Mideast oil world is far from stable.

The Fed will purchase $6.5B - $8.5B worth Treasuries with 2018-2021 maturities this morning and this could help Bonds later today. But even with that said - the recent bullishness in Bonds has been tempered a bit and technically the Bond has been unable to break above the 25-day Moving Average. For this and for the many aforementioned headwinds a locking bias looks prudent.

Once again the bellwether 10 yr, driver for mortgage rates, failed on its attempt to move below 3.40% this morning. The 10 has recently found a home trading between 3.40% and 3.50%, not much of a range but keeping mortgage rates stable. We remain bearish for the direction of interest rates on the wider perspective. For all of Bernanke's confidence inflation won't get a toehold, the Fed will end QE and the Federal Funding rate will likely be increased before the end of the 3rd Q.

When you are ready for home financing - give me a call!

Your friend in the business,

Kirsten Fleenor
Mortgage Banker

Ameripro Funding, Inc DBA
Lone Star Lenders
16800 N. Dallas Parkway, Suite #110
Dallas, Texas 75248
Office: (972)629-7665
866-711-8195 ext 108
Mobile: (214)886-2898

Originator NMLS# 223257
Company NMLS# 131699

Conventional, FHA, VA, and Jumbo loans available.

In-House Processing, Underwriting, and Funding.
No Cost to Inquire... Free Loan Analysis... Fast and Easy Closing.

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