Forgotten Your Password?

Need to Register?

David Carr

Mortgage Newsletter

Wednesday, May 22, 2013 - Article by: David Carr - First Choice Loan Services - Message

For the week of May 20, 2013 - Vol. 11, Issue 20>>

Market Update QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "Optimism is essential to achievement and it is also the foundation of courage and true progress." --Nicholas Murray Butler, American diplomat and educator

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... It definitely takes guts to remain optimistic in the face of some of the housing data coming at us these days. Last week, for example, we were greeted with a 16.5% drop in Housing Starts for April. It helps to dig into these reports. The dip was mostly due to multi-family starts, which are very volatile month to month, and were down 38.9%. Turns out, single-family starts were off just 2.1%. Taking a long-term view helps even more. Starts overall are up 13.1% versus a year ago, with single-family starts up a healthy 20.8%. So there.It didn't take any effort at all to stay optimistic in the face of the April Building Permits report. New building permits rose 14.3% during the month to a 1.02 million annual rate. Permits for single-family homes are now up 27.5% over a year ago, and multi-family permits are up a whopping 50.9%. An analysis of U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development data revealed that 64% of building permits issued in the first quarter of this year were for single-family homes. And they were at the highest level since Q1 of 2008.

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Use social media to give something back. Shining the light on others doing good in the community attracts attention to yourself in the best way possible. >> Review of Last Week

BULL-IEVE IT!... Given the week's mostly disappointing economic data, it was hard to believe the bulls prevailed on Wall Street again, pushing stocks to their fourth weekly gain in a row with the Dow and the S&P 500 indexes setting new records. To be fair, the bulls did have some decent reports on which to base their enthusiasm. April Retail Sales, Building Permits, and Leading Economic Indicators all surprised to the upside. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment index for May also handily beat estimates.However, a plethora of indicators headed to the downside, starting with weak readings for April Industrial Production and the New York Empire Manufacturing Index for May. The disappointing economic news continued with higher than expected Initial Unemployment Claims, a dip in Housing Starts, and a lower than expected Philadelphia Fed Index of manufacturing for that region. But the CPI reading for April showed that consumer price inflation is staying well under control.The week ended with the Dow up 1.6%, to 15354; the S&P 500 up 2.1%, to 1667; and the Nasdaq up 1.8%, to 3499. As equity markets hit new all-time highs, bonds came under considerable selling pressure and prices slid. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down .14, at $105.04. National average mortgage rates rose again in Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, although they remain well below levels of a year ago. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported purchase loan demand off for the week but still up 10% from a year ago.

DID YOU KNOW?... A bond is a debt instrument issued for a period of more than one year with the purpose of raising capital by borrowing. An investor who buys a bond becomes a creditor of the issuer but does not gain any ownership rights, as in the case of stocks. >>

This Week's Forecast HOME SALES GAIN, DURABLE GOODS RECOVER, FED CHITCHAT... Additional data on the housing recovery comes in this week and more progress is expected for April. Existing Home Sales are forecast to inch higher to just below a 5 million unit annual rate. New Home Sales should also continue edging up farther into 400K territory. Wednesday's FOMC Minutes from the Fed's May 1 meeting will spark interest, as we see whether the discussion sheds any more light on the central bank's view of the economy. The week ends with April Durable Goods, predicted to bounce back into positive territory, showing a healthier market for long-term purchases.

>> The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of May 20 - May 24

DateTime (ET)ReleaseForConsensusPriorImpactWMay 2210:00Existing Home SalesApr4.98M4.92MModerateWMay 2210:30Crude Inventories5/18NA-0.624MModerateWMay 2214:00FOMC Minutes5/1NANAHIGHThMay 2308:30Initial Unemployment Claims5/18348K360KModerateThMay 2308:30Continuing Unemployment Claims5/113.005M3.009MModerateThMay 2310:00New Home SalesApr425K417KModerateFMay 2408:30Durable Goods OrdersApr1.6%-6.9%Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... Nothing happened last week to change the prevailing view of economists that the Fed will keep the Funds Rate at exceptionally low levels at least until the last three months of this year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%-0.25%After FOMC meeting on:Consensus Jun 190%-0.25%Jul 310%-0.25%Sep 180%-0.25%Probability of change from current policy:After FOMC meeting on:Consensus Jun 19 <1%Jul 31 <1%Sep 18 <1%UIE

This blog is an advertisement for David M. Carr. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in the newsletter is the property of First Choice Loan Services Inc. and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. It is designed for real estate and other financial professionals only. It is not intended for consumer distribution. The material does not represent the opinion of First Choice Loan Services Inc.. First Choice Loan Services, Inc. is a wholly owned subsidiary of First Choice Bank (First Choice Bank NMLS #177877, First Choice Loan Services, Inc. NMLS #210764). First Choice Loan Services, Inc. is not an agency of the federal government and is not affiliated with your current lender. All loans are subject to credit approval. Programs, rates, terms and conditions are current as of 11/14/12, but are subject to change and may expire without notice. Other restrictions may apply. All applications must be submitted in writing. This advertisement is not a loan disclosure and all disclosures provided after applying should be reviewed carefully. This is not a commitment to provide a loan approval or a specific interest rate. NMLS# 131488This email was sent to may unsubscribe from future advertisement e-mails from David M. Carr.Click here to unsubscribe MCID{ContactId}

David M. Carr

Senior Home Loan Consultant

NMLS# 1314884100 East Mississippi, Ste. 1000

Denver, CO 80246

Mobile: 248-469-5588

Fax: 888-382-6740

Didn't find the answer you wanted? Ask one of your own.

Get an answer
Subscribe to our news feed.