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Mortgage Rate Predictions

Jul 1, 2015 10:33AM PDT

Rate Update 7/1/2015 : What will mortgage interest rates do tomorrow? Mortgage professionals are voting in our daily poll.Mortgage rates have are continuting to drop as the week progresses. A letter from Tsipras containing an agreement to almost all of EU creditor conditions is of interest, particularly since such a letter could lead to the referendum being cancelled.  There was an increase in German Bond yields, and United States followed that trend.  There was some concern about the message being sent by Tsipiras, since a speech later in the day seemed to contradics any progress being made.  Aside from Greece, however, bond markets are still stable, focusing more on NFP positioning, strong data, and the upward trend in rates this year.Check back Thursday for non-farm payrolls,... More

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4.227%

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3.973%

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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates hit their highest levels in 2015 on Friday, but after the news over the weekend out of Europe about Greece - there is no doubt that Greece is going to default tomorrow on its debt payment to the IMF - we saw the mortgage bonds improve significantly today. Greece closed their banks for the week, rattling global markets - now news that Porto Rico calling for concessions from the island's creditors in order to stave off a cash...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates are at an all-time high for 2015. Is this weekend going to offer up a deal? Markets think it might but that is a giant leap of faith based on what we have seen for the last four months. Yesterday the creditors came up with a five month plan to give Greece time and more money to get their economic house in order. Today though the finance ministers sounding not only skeptical but annoyed. A significant bloc of euro-zone ministers say...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates barely budged despite the fact that MBS prices and treasury prices increased today - not much and still technically bearish. All about Greece, markets completely obsessed with it, maybe too much but that is what is driving markets these days. Meanwhile economic data is gaining momentum in about every sector but manufacturing. EU finance ministers met again today, the third meeting in a week with no resolution. Meetings are expected...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates are caught in a vicious cycle right now that is not too pleasant. Basically, for the past seven weeks, they have been increasing with a few days where they allow us to catch our breath before they move upward again. Today, however, it was a quiet today as the world waits and wonders about what will happen with Greece. This morning May durable goods were soft, May new home sales stronger than expected. Neither got much attention...
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Linda Miller
Today, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) Director Richard Cordray issued the following statement on the Know Before You Owe mortgage disclosure rule: "The CFPB will be issuing a proposed amendment to delay the effective date of the Know Before You Owe rule until October 1, 2015. We made this decision to correct an administrative error that we just discovered in meeting the requirements under federal law, which would have delayed the...
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Linda Miller
Treasuries rallied after a Dovish Fed statement suggested that the pace of rate hikes will be slow. The Fed improved its stance on the economy, but stated that the conditions for a rate hike have not been achieved. General consensus is two hikes before the end of the year, so that leaves September and December. During the press conference Yellen urged that the market concern itself more with the pace of the hikes than the timing of the first...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates had a wild ride today. Underlying bond markets were significantly weaker leading up to the afternoon's Fed events. Prior to the 2:00 Statement the 10yr note yield increased 8BPS today and MBS prices were down 43BPS from yesterday's close. 15 minutes after the Statement the 10yr up just 1BPS and MBS prices were down just 5BPS. The Statement made no direct reference about when the Fed would begin increasing rates. Likely...
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Commercial Hard Money Lenders
Investing in Commercial Real Estate: Property Inspections If you are looking at a commercial real estate acquisition many times there are very important issues that you need to know about the investment. Getting the due diligence together is an all important first step in finding an apartment or multifamily to invest in. If you are getting the property for further renovation, which is often the case, you will need a specific foundational report...
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Linda Miller
After topping out at 2.50 last week, the ten year Treasury Note has settled into the 2.33 to 2.36 range. Until we see something that pushes the market one way or the other in a meaningful way, we will continue to look for rates to drift upward.What is that something???Greece - According to Sigma Research the talks between Greece and the negotiation team in Brussels broke down over the weekend. Greece has a big payment due on June 30th and is...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates did not see much movement today in the bond and MBS markets but early this morning panicky investors in Europe piled into treasuries and other key sovereign debt on the breakdown of talks over the weekend between Greece and its creditors. On June 30th Greece has a payment due the IMF, and pay Greek pensions. No way that will occur unless there is a deal accepted by the IMF, ECB, EU and EC that will allow more emergency funds to...
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Ross Bennett, CMB
One of my favorite television shows is The Property Brothers on HGTV. This popular show is hosted by twin brothers; one a Realtor and one a Contractor, who locate old, out of date properties for sale. Then, with a six figure rehab budget, the brothers update the home to a more modern, functional design for new buyers. In the time slot all
Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates were at their all-time highs - however, let's not get too excited with today's price gains and rate decline - it is more just position squaring and profit-taking by traders. Nothing has changed fundamentally and with next week's FOMC meeting beginning on Tuesday traders (the group whose time frames are measured in days). Nevertheless the improvement today does allow some deals to get locked, but the usual response...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates continued pressing into new highs for 2015. The DJIA and other key indexes rallied today, but the most rationale we heard was that if interest rates are moving higher and the Fed is about to increase rates then it is all good for the economic outlook. I do not agree with that but that is what is happening these days. Global economies are slipping, the US job quality is not sufficient to stimulate a major increase in consumer...
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Bart Castelli
There still is no appetite for bond buying. Although the market is set for a bounce it will take weak economic news to see any bounce now. This morning the April wholesale inventories increased slightly better than expected, that it was better is only half the story. Inventories are below a giant 1.6% surge in sales. April sales were disappointing, unchanged from March. Sales in May and May PPI on Friday are weighing now on the bond markets. Much...
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Bart Castelli
What a week for Mortgage Rates. Once the support levels broke on the 10yr and MBSs there has been massive selling. The main reasons were because the economic outlook has improved and markets are less concerned about the Greek debt crisis. As you know markets have been fretting since the beginning of the year that the Fed will begin increasing rates this year. A few, and I was not one, did not expect the Fed would move until early next year, but...
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Bart Castelli
The Jobs Report came out this morning better than anticipated - even though the May unemployment rate increased to 5.5% from 5.4%. There were more jobs created than anticipated, but the revisions certainly made me jump when I saw the change not only for April, but the big change in the revision upward from the poor March report. Over the past three months, job growth has averaged 207,000 a month, compared with 251,000 in the 12 months prior to...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates bounced back ever-so-slightly today, ultimately doing very little to erase the damage done so far this week. Comments from the Greek government that it will not make the payment due tomorrow but will 'bundle' all the payments due this month and make one payment at the end of the month according to the WSJ this afternoon. Apparently the IMF had suggested that option to Greece to alleviate the payment tomorrow. As noted in...
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Bart Castelli
A slightly better start this morning as it has been ugly the past few days. Weekly claims were as expected with a slight revision upward with last week's claims. Nothing in the report got much attention. Also the final Q1 productivity came out - and although some may ignore the report as old data, the decline in productivity and increased unit labor costs is troubling. Output as measured in this report fell 1.6% in the quarter at the same...
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Bart Castelli
The explosive increase in rates has taken markets by surprise - shock and awe. Since last Friday MBS prices from wholesalers and aggregators have increased 136BPS, putting the rates solid in the 4 range. It started in Germany with the German 10yr bund and spread rapidly to the US bond market. The bund yield traded at 0.07% six weeks ago, began inching higher until Monday when the lid blew - the 10yr bund now at 0.90%. Like stretching the rubber...
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Bart Castelli
Last Friday the technical models and momentum oscillators finally turned slightly bullish, but as I noted in our float/lock advice I was not completely comfortable with the way it occurred. The 10 dropped from 2.30% to 2.14% before it broke through, that kind of former move implied it was not a strong reversal. This morning markets got the first dose of this week's key data. April personal income was better than thought but to me the more...
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Bart Castelli
Q1 GDP as I reported this morning came in as expected with little movement in the bond or mortgage markets though. The bellwether 10yr had already declined 8BPS since last Friday, discounting the GDP data. Now that is history (although the final will come late in June, but rarely is there much change from the preliminary). A soft quarter blamed mainly on weather as markets tend to do each first quarter, easier to side step any weakness. Q2 two...
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Bart Castelli
As I discussed this morning in my report, I did not expect to see much change in the bond and mortgage markets today - and it held true to form. The 10yr is ready to break to the downside taking rates lower but so far has run into resistance at 2.14% - 2.13%. The Q1 GDP report tomorrow will either turn the work bullish again or send rates higher and MBS prices lower on a third failure at 2.14% area on the 10yr. The recent estimate for Q1 is the...
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Bart Castelli
Another good day for the bond and mortgage markets, but not as good as yesterday as the 10yr note still was not able to break out of its three week range. MBSs tagged along with prices a little better than this morning. Of course the stock indexes improved, a usual move after the prior day saw indexes decline. No trend in stocks now, all chop and no clear sustained gains for months. Today rumors were circulating that Greece had made a deal with...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates moved tentatively lower today as it was another good day for the bond and mortgage markets - however do not read too much into it. The pace was only slightly better than yesterday when it was all but undetectable. To those expecting more improvement based on trading levels in the bond markets that drive rates, it might seem a bit frustrating. No doubt it is nice but it is mostly short-covering ahead of Janet Yellen's speech...
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Linda Miller
The minutes from the Fed's April meeting, released yesterday, indicated that many Fed officials saw a June hike as unlikely.... NO SURPRISE. The market reaction was muted as the removal of the June rate hike has already been priced in, and there was very little in the way of new information. The hike is now a meeting by meeting decision, so every data release will bring increased volatility as the market looks to determine the likelihood of...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates ended the day very close to unchanged, following what was a supportive reading of the Fed's April Meeting Minutes. The big, nasty surprise that may have been lurking (potential rate hike arguments for June) was instead ruled out. The Fed noted that many members agreed that the economy was not likely to make a strong enough case for a June rate hike. That said, neither did the Minutes suggest the Fed was reevaluating their...
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Linda Miller
The market is reacting to headline housing starts this morning, which came out far better than expected. Bloomberg reports that April housing starts rose 20.2% to a 1.135 mln unit rate from an upwardly revised 944K unit rate in March. Building permits rose 10.1% to a 1.143 mln unit rate from a downwardly revised 1.038 mln unit rate in March. This is the biggest month/month percentage increase in housing starts since February 1991, while the 1.135...
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Bart Castelli
There is very little volatility in the US equity markets but the volatility in the bond and mortgage markets continues. Mortgage rates moved higher out of the gate for a second straight week, though today's jump was smaller than last Monday's. All of the price gains we had Friday and the decline in the 10yr note rate is all gone now. The 10yr at 2.24% up 10BPS as we saw Friday the 10yr lost 10BPS. What is causing the extreme volatility...
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Bart Castelli
Think interest rates increased this week and MBS prices dumped? Most likely you would think so, but that was not the case. It is the same pattern we had the week before, all the angst and hand-wringing amounted to nothing in the end. The week ended with the 10yr declining only 1BPS from last Friday and MBS declined just 25BPS. Numerous times I have noted that looking at markets on a week-to-week basis puts a different perspective on things. Take...
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Bart Castelli
Weekly claims came in lower than anticipated as most thought it would increase and it basically was stagnant. The four-week average, a less-volatile measure, was the lowest since April 2000. Firings and lay-offs have declined leading to markets expecting wage increases are just around the corner. Recent employment data confirms that the slowdown in Q1 was 'transitory' as the Fed defines it. Wholesale prices in April (PPI) were expected...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates saw another increase today, the 7th sessions out of 8 that interest rates have risen. The 10yr has gone from 1.92% to 2.24%, MBS prices have declined 191BPS since April 28th. After 30 sessions in a very tight range, as we noted when the range was still intact, when it broke it would be a huge and swift move in the direction of the break-out. At that point I along with a number of other economists were still slightly bullish for a...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates have not been friendly in the past week as we have seen that after nearly 30 days of no movement whatsoever, we have seen that in four out of the past six days have seen uncommonly big moves higher. These are the sorts of moves that we normally only see 2-3 times per month, so to see 4 of them in just over a week is alarming. The bond and mortgage markets are currently oversold on a very near term basis. All of the momentum...
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Linda Miller
Yesterday's Fed announcement was categorized by many as a non-event. The first paragraph of the Fed statement contained a few notable changes, but the overall message is very much the same. The fed used the words "transitory factors" when noting the weakness in the economics data recently. This offset the bearish tone of the data, suggesting that we had a few blips that will be corrected in the coming months. June seems to be all but taken...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates moved firmly up to their highest levels in the past six weeks. All the focus going into today was on the FOMC policy statement. Q1 GDP this morning was much softer than thought normally would have supported the fixed income markets like MBSs, but was pushed away. March pending home sales was in line with forecasts, also pushed aside by traders and investors. Even this afternoon's FOMC which was about what had been expected by...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates have had very little movement over the past 5-6 weeks - until today. This happens from time to time on the approach to events that have a lot of market movement potential such as the case with the FOMC Policy statement to be released at 1:00PM tomorrow. Even before the events themselves, markets began taking a 'lead-off' in one direction or the other. The time around, the lead-off happens to be toward higher rates. The...
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Chris Neuswanger
The turmoil of the world's economy has had one little heralded beneficiary. While governments have teetered on collapse, gold soared and plunged, and oil prices collapsed, the one group who benefited were borrowers whose interest rates were tied to the demand for US Treasury Bills. The largest single group were homeowners who had adjustable rate mortgages. These loans, while often fixed for the first five or seven years adjust annually...
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Bart Castelli
Rate markets a little better today after the strong selling took the 10yr to 1.98% from 1.91% on Tuesday. This morning March new home sales were lower than expected, with no noticeable reaction to the report. As I noted three months ago and many times since, any weakness in the economy is blamed mostly on the weather. Until we get April data the consensus is strong now that the economy will continue to improve. Greece wants acceleration in talks...
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Bart Castelli
After seven sessions with hardly any movement the 10yr today broke out, but not the direction I was expecting. The 10yr has ended the day at 1.98% and is now above both its 20 and 40 day averages we deem important. So far it is not serious yet, but now the 10yr and MBS rates are likely to increase more by a few more basis points to 2.02%. If that is violated, purely from a technical view, the 10yr may just climb to 2.20% before the next support...
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Prospect Financial Group San Deigo, CA
The VA loan is a very advantageous loan program offered to those tied to the American military. Some factors that make the VA loan one of the best on the market are its 100% financing options, low closing costs, forgiving loan standards, and below-market mortgage rates. VA mortgage rates are on average 0.375% lower than going rates for conventional loans. In addition, VA loans carry no monthly private mortgage insurance (PMI) unlike other...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates barely budged yet again today despite more volatility in underlying financial markets. It is really interesting to see my trading charts as yesterday's chart as it sits under my chart from today is mirrored in its pattern, of which was the same as I recall the day before. This is the same behavior and part of an even broader trend of minimal movement since the beginning of the month. US and Global stock markets were tagged...
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Kyle Jenkins
Freddie is boosting their last product before Fannie and Freddie meet their cap for the year. Even though we have just started the second quarter, originations started high this year. Fannie Mae ended February with $6.9 Billion in new business. Compared to last year's numbers, that is $4.5 Billion more in new business. Needless to say, both Fannie and Freddie are starting off strong with unpredicted numbers. For strong markets, Freddie is...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates were unchanged again today, continuing a trend of minimal movement that has been intact for all but one day in the last month. Rates are not much different now as they were then. Am I beginning to sound like a broken record? Within the near term trading range the 10yr and MBSs showed a little volatility. MBS prices started slightly lower this morning then about 10:00 selling took MBS prices down 16BPS and the 10yr ran up to 1.90%...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates seems to be fighting the resistant levels again this morning. March housing starts did not meet the expectations after dropping in the month of February. Permits were also released, but that figure was as expected as weather had a factor in those numbers. The housing sector continues to disappoint but the data on housing recently is mixed, some good, some weak. In February new home sales were the highest in seven years. Weekly...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly higher today, though that depends largely on the individual strategies of the lender in question. What we had was another narrow trading range today. The 10yr tried somewhat to move to 1.86% but once again failed. By the end of the day, it remained unchanged from yesterday with MBS prices also about unchanged. This afternoon the Fed released the Beige Book, Fed staffers saw moderate to modest improvement...
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Bart Castelli
March retail sales weaker than thought this morning, although up 0.9% markets were expecting +1.1%. Normally that kind of miss would not have any impact on markets but with three previous months of negative sales, that sales were soft sent the bond and mortgage markets into short covering. The 10yr yield dropped 7BPS this morning to 1.86%, as we noted this morning that level is a strong resistance level. The 10yr could not break 1.86% on the...
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Bart Castelli
Kind of a sleepy day, not much going on that moved stocks or the interest rate markets today. There were no significant economic releases today, a story that has lasted from a week ago continued today. That will not occur again this week. Tomorrow March retail sales, March PPI, and February business inventories. Retail sales have not been impressive since last November. Another weak sales report tomorrow would drive interest rates lower and...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates increased somewhat this week, as the 10yr tested the key support at 2.00%. There was not much data this week - and what there was was about what markets were expecting. IMS services sector index on Monday and weekly jobless claims yesterday. The FOMC minutes released Wednesday did not add anything to the drum beat of higher rates coming. The big downer for prices this week came from the three Treasury auctions that had less demand...
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Bart Castelli
If I tell you that the March employment report this morning was not much of a surprise to myself - I might be bending the truth a little bit. Long-time readers of my blog are well aware that employment is always a system shock, especially to myself, as the direction of the misses compared to estimates is a keystone for the BLS data. This time around the misses are supporting more decline in interest rates. The "consensus" for non-farm jobs was an...
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Bart Castelli
The bond and MBS markets lost some ground today, as mortgage rates bounced a little lower which is nothing unusual ahead of the employment report. Traders were taking profits and hedging against the data. I recommended locking in this morning's report. I am still bullish but not interested in blind trading. There is not anything more I have to say this today. The employment report tomorrow is all markets are thinking about. The estimate is...
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Bart Castelli
It was another good day for making money and floating. Mortgage rates fell again today at a faster pace than seen in the last few days. The data this morning was weak, as has been most data in the last month. ADP job growth was off, March ISM manufacturing index was soft, and now the numbers I am hearing for Friday's employment data is non-farm jobs at 200K from 247K that was originally estimated. No progress with Iran nukes - surprise!...
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