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Mortgage Rate Predictions

Aug 31, 2015 11:30AM PDT

Rate Update 8/31/2015 : What are mortgage rates going to do tomorrow? Mortgage professionals are voting in our daily poll.Mortgage rates are reacting to some month end anxiety.  Typically a sector of traders will buy bonds at month end in order to balance out their portfolios.  US Treasuries are seen as a safe-haven due to weakness in Asia.  In Europe, German Bunds have been selling off in an aggressive fashion, moving from .72 to .80 in one hour.  This has caused some repricing risk in the mid-morning.  There is still the chance for month end-trading activity to occur, as 3pm and 5pm at month-end usually bring about some activity.  Domestically, markets are still on guard for upcoming reports.  Domestic news that is set to be realeased over the next couple of weeks may very... More

Displaying rates for Mortgage Refinance in VA for $200,000

3.705%

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3.625% Rate $912/mo
  • Updated September 01, 2015
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3.828%

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3.625% Rate $912/mo
  • Updated September 01, 2015
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3.677%

APR
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3.500% Rate $898/mo
  • Updated September 01, 2015
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4.602%

APR
30 Year Fixed
4.375% Rate $999/mo
  • Updated September 01, 2015
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Mark Hemingway
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday that a recent study showed that housing demand will surge over the next ten years. The MBA feels that between 13.9 and 15.9 million households will be formed by 2023, making the next 10 years one of the strongest in housing in U.S. history. The MBA went on to say that the housing demand will be driven by Hispanics, Baby Boomers and Millennials.Online real estate company Zillow reported...
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MEL SMITH
Don't become discouraged.... If you have been refused a Home Loan there are a few steps that you can take to change the outcome. Step 1: Find out the exact reason you were denied.The initial step to any problem is to identify the root cause. What were the things that were factored in which ultimately led to your denial of credit? Step 2: If the reasons for the denial are centered on correctable errors, then take the necessary actions to...
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MEL SMITH
Don't become discouraged.... If you have been refused a Home Loan there are a few steps that you can take to change the outcome. Step 1: Find out the exact reason you were denied.The initial step to any problem is to identify the root cause. What were the things that were factored in which ultimately led to your denial of credit? Step 2: If the reasons for the denial are centered on correctable errors, then take the necessary actions to...
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Mark Hemingway
A volatile session to say the least, China remains the instigator as markets fret about growth in that nation. Despite the 588 point loss for the Dow, Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) ended with modest gains. With prices still at lofty levels, borrowers should still consider locking. If Stocks reverse, MBS could slump. MARKET WRAP:MBS traded in a wide range today as the volatility ramped up, due to the selloff in the Stock markets. The 3.5% 30-yr...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates moved moderately lower yet again today. At the heart of the matter are concerns that the global economic growth outlook may be dimming. That's a scary thought considering Europe is in the midst of ongoing quantitative easing and that China has taken somewhat desperate steps to bolster its economy and markets. Top that all off with the absence of QE in the US as well as the Fed's rate hike rhetoric and all the ingredients...
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James Brooks
By James Brooks The bond market is down 54/32 (2.18%), which should push today's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point. The Commerce Department announced early this morning that new home groundbreakings rose last month to their highest level since October 2007. The increase was only 0.2% from June, but a sizable upward revision to June's starts allowed the small increase to reach that level. Because most of the...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates moved back up today, but continue holding well-inside last week's range - just another quiet one today. The 10yr note yield increased a little to 2.19% while MBS prices were basically a little off from yesterday's close. The news of the day, housing starts and permits in July. Of course this does not tell the whole story because what occurred in 2000 to 2008 was way too much and massive foreclosures of entire new...
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James Brooks
By James Brooks The bond market is currently up 12/32 (2.15%), which should improve today's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point. There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today, so I would not be surprised to see a fairly calm day. The rest of the week brings us four pieces of monthly economic data with one being considered highly important. In addition to the economic data, the minutes from the last FOMC...
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Bart Castelli
Another day with little movement in the bond and mortgage markets after the improvement this morning on the very weak NY Empire State manufacturing index. The stock market though showed its usual volatility, opening down 128 points on the DJIA, two hours later the loss was gone and equity market indexes closed the day fractionally higher on the release of the NAHB index at 9:00 am. The Empire index in July was very weak. Is it meaningful to the...
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Mark Hemingway
Home builder confidence rose to its best level in 10 years fueled by job and economic gains in 2015. The National Association of Home Builders reported that its Housing Market Index rose one point to 61 in August, which was in line with expectations and the best level since November 2005. Buyer traffic increased two points to 45, current sales conditions rose one point to 66, while sales expectations for the next six months held steady at 70. Any...
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Bart Castelli
If you are looking for what we mean by market volatility, today is a good example. Mortgage rates were lower at first today. The bond markets that underlie mortgage rate movement continued taking cues from global volatility surrounding yesterday's big news out of China. This morning the US stock market was under more heavy selling pressure but as the afternoon wore on the key indexes reversed and ended a little better. The rate markets also...
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James Brooks
By James Brooks The bond market is up 4/32 (2.14%), which should improve today's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point. Tomorrow brings us the release of two reports, one of which is much more important than the other. The more influential release is July's Retail Sales data at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. This report comes from the Commerce Department and will give us a very important measurement of consumer spending....
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates moved slightly higher today, erasing the modest improvements seen on Friday. Global equity markets rule these days - equity selling supports lower interest rates, buying removes that support. After seven consecutive selling days in US and global markets today prices increased removing the safety factor of money moving into treasuries thus supporting mortgage rates. Interest rates have had a good four week run, the 10yr declined...
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James Brooks
By James Brooks The bond market is down 16/32 (2.22%), which should push today's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point. Strength late Friday is preventing more of an increase in today's pricing. There is nothing of relevance scheduled for release today, so we are seeing a noticeable reaction to today's stock gains. The rest of the week brings us the release of five pieces of monthly economic data in...
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Mark Hemingway
The big talk on Wall Street continues to be whether or not the Federal Reserve will begin to raise the short term Fed Funds Rate sometime in the fall. Most economists feel that a rate hike will come in September, but Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer put some doubts on that happening next month. Mr. Fisher said today that the interesting situation is that employment has been rising pretty fast, but inflation continues to run very low....
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates were surprisingly calm today, especially in light of the fact that the big jobs report was released this morning. This report has more potential to move rates than any other piece of economic data, though you would not have known it by today's reaction. US Treasury market holding very nicely and MBS are slowly following. Debate rages about when the Fed will act, as noted this morning the July employment report cements a move...
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Bart Castelli
Tomorrow is the day markets may finally get the answer to when the Fed will move to tighten short terms rates. Why tomorrow? If the employment data tomorrow is weaker than forecasts that will take the September rate hike off the table, stronger will confirm the Fed is going to do it in September. The Fed needs two consecutive strong employment reports (July and August) to cement the increase at that time. Sounds simple but it really is not. The...
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Mark Hemingway
Ahead of tomorrow's July Jobs Report, which carries a big headline risk, locking is recommended. Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports that employers cut 105,696 workers from their payrolls in July. That is 136% greater than the 44,842 cuts recorded in June. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims at 270K, just near the 271K expected. WTI oil at $44.71/barrel down 44 cents. Analysts see $43/barrel as support. Freddie Mac reports...
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SDrilling
With mortgage rates hovering near record lows, a growing number of homeowners are racing to refinance -- only to find the process riddled with obstacles.For one, homeowners often have to wait months before they can secure a new loan at a lower rate. But on top of that, credit requirements remain tight, so borrowers approved for mortgages before the downturn might not pass muster now. And even those who do get approved often find their homes do...
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Mark Hemingway
The labor market suffered a minor setback today after headlines read that private employers added less jobs than was expected in July. Payroll service firm ADP reported that private employers added 185,000 jobs in July, below the 220,000 expected and down from the 229,000 created in June, which was revised lower from 237,000. And though job growth has been strong, it has been moderating since the beginning of the year, noted Mark Zandi, chief...
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James Brooks
By James Brooks The bond market is currently down 9/32 (2.18%), we should an increase in today's mortgage rates by .125 of a point. June's Factory Orders report was posted ltoday by the Commerce Department. It showed a 1.8% increase in new orders at U.S. factories for both durable and non-durable goods. That pegged forecasts, indicating gains in the manufacturing sector but at a pace that was expected. Therefore, we can consider the...
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Bart Castelli
After hitting the best levels in just over 2 months yesterday, mortgage rates bounced moderately higher today. Coincidence or reality? I noted yesterday we had achieved the goal when the 10yr hit its key resistance and again this morning. But when Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart came out with his comments this afternoon saying he was ready to increase rates in September, it seemed like he was the "Almighty Guru" and that people should follow...
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Mark Hemingway
The recent rally in Mortgage Bonds seems to be stalling at current levels. Locking is recommended. There are no economic reports due for release today.Traders begin to position themselves ahead of this week's big risk event ... July Non-farm payrolls, which will be released Friday morning at 8:30am ET. After the recent plunge, WTI oil up 72 cents to $45.88/barrel. USD Libor 1-month .19%, 3-month .30%, 6-month .48%, 12-month .80%. CoreLogic...
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Mark Hemingway
Low trading volume was typical for a summer Monday and with a decline in Stocks, MBS didn't have a big upside move as prices have rallied big and may be topping out.The rally in Bonds is getting long in the tooth. I grow ever so cautious as the benchmark 3.5% Fannie Mae 30-year has gained nearly 200bp since the July 13 low. And with the Jobs Report coming on Friday, risk is high at this point. Prices are facing tough resistance at the...
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Suzen Ashley
We all have different requirement at different times in life for which we have to count on self and nobody else and it is a hard fact with which we have to live with. Financial independence is the best gift that anyone may offer to self and for this reason people to financial planning as soon as they start earning or pick up a job. It is important from all the angles as we are capable of managing anything and everything at the age and time when...
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James Brooks
By James Brooks With the release of five pieces of economic data that are worth watching. The most important ones are early and late in the week, so we should see the most movement those days. Because the data is spread throughout the week, we could see noticeable changes to rates multiple days. June's Personal Income and Outlays data will kick off the week at 8:30 AM ET Monday morning. This report helps us measure consumer ability to spend...
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Chris Arco
If you are buying an $650,000 house in Orange County, and you have two buyers, with the same offer (for example: $635,000), and one borrower has a pre-approval of $635,000 and the other has an approval letter between $650k and $750k, othe seller might choose to go with the higher pre-approval amount, even though both are equally qualified. what's concerning is the seller and/ro agent might attempt to squeeze out a higher price from the buyer...
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Mark Hemingway
The inflation reading Employment Cost Index, which is the broadest measure of labor costs, gained 0.2% in the 2nd quarter of 2015. This represented the smallest increase in 33 years, while wage and benefit costs also showed meager gains. Labor costs rose 2% in the year ending in June, below the 3% target that is needed to bring core inflation closer to the 2% level that the Fed is trying to achieve.The final reading on July Consumer Sentiment...
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James Brooks
By James Brooks The bond market is up 6/32 (2.26%), which should improve today's mortgage rates by .125 of a point. Today had two pieces of economic data for the markets to digest. The first and more important one was the preliminary reading of the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It showed a 2.3% increase in the GDP from April through June that was a little softer than expectations. The data shows that the economy rebounded from a...
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Mark Hemingway
Weak home and purchase contracts hint at pause in sales activity. $35B 5-yr Note auction garners an "A" rating. Big draw down in oil supplies lifts prices, Stocks. WTI up $1.12 to $49.11/barrel. Fed comments that there will be no change in interest rates and no hint of a rate hike in near future. Conditions will likely warrant low rates for some time. Fed gives no hint at rate hike at next Fed meeting in September. Fed states that labor markets...
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Mark Hemingway
Ahead of today's 2:00pm ET release of the Fed statement, cautiously floating is recommended. However, that can quickly turn to locking. 10-yr T Note yield 2.28%, up from 2.25% at yesterday's close. The MBA reports its Market Composite Index, a measure of total loan application volume, +0.8% in in the latest survey. The MBAs refinance index +2%, purchase index near unchanged.After trading in positive territory earlier this morning,...
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James Brooks
By James Brooks The bond market is currently down 10/32 (2.25%), which should move today's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point. The Conference Board gave us July's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) today. They announced a reading of 90.9 that fell well short of expectations and was a sizable drop from June's revised 99.8. Analysts were expecting to see a decline from June but forecasts were for a much...
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Mark Hemingway
After the recent rally, Mortgage Bonds are drifting lower as the trading week draws to a close. Cautiously floating is recommended. 10-yr T Note yield 2.26% from 2.27% from yesterday's close. But as of mid morning, MBS quickly erase their losses. USD Libor 1-month .19%, 3-month .29%, 6-month .46%, 12-month .80%. June New Home Sales unexpectedly fall by 6.8% from May to an annual rate of 482K, below the 550K expected and the worst print of 2015.
Chris Neuswanger
It is the duty of Congress to try and make the country function, and to levy taxes and fees to fund the Government. In general, they are a desperate crowd who try desperate measures and seldom accomplish much more than mucking up what was not already broken. Politically to call a new tax a tax is something few politicians have the nerve to do. They also seldom have the nerve to say no to building bridges to nowhere or subsidizing otherwise...
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Mark Hemingway
The number of Americans filing for first time unemployment benefits fell to a 42-year low in the latest week as the job market continues to strengthen. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell by 26,000 to 255,000 and has been running below the 300,000 mark since February, the longest such streak in 15 years. However, July is one of the most volatile months of the year due to automakers and other various companies shutting down at different weeks of...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates reversed course today and got in line with rates that saw improvement that the drastic changes we have seen in the past few months. Naturally, today's modest improvement is in line with our broader strategy shift toward a "wait and see" approach. A little bit better today in very light trading. The 10yr is at 2.34% and MBS prices improved today. Once again no data to move markets. The driver today was the drop in the DJIA....
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James Brooks
By James Brooks The bond market is up 2/32, which should keep today's mortgage rates the same as yesterday's rates. Stocks are reacting to disappointing earnings news from some big-named companies including IBM and United Technologies that are part of the Dow. This by theory should help boost bond prices but we have not seen much of a reaction yet. If the Dow extends its early losses and the Nasdaq gives back its morning gains, we could...
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James Brooks
By James Brooks The bond market is up 7/32 (2.40%), which should improve today's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point. today's only economic data was June's Retail Sales report that showed consumer level sales fell 0.3% last month. Analysts were expecting to see an increase of .3% meaning consumers spent much less than many had thought. Furthermore, a secondary reading that excludes more volatile and pricey auto...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates did not move much today, even though if one would look how the market opened, one would have thought it would have been a bad day with rates. The stock market rallied, but the bond and mortgage markets ended about unchanged from Friday's levels. As I mentioned, this morning on the knee jerk reaction to the potential Greek deal - the 10yr yield jumped and MBSs went down big time, but as the day progressed, yields held and...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates moved lower at a healthy pace today, ultimately hitting the best levels in just over a month. It was though a strange day today - the NYSE closed down from 10:32 am until 2:10 pm. No exchange has exclusive rights to trade any stock or exchange-traded fund, except during the opening and closing of trading. The bond and mortgage markets were looking heavy most of the day until the FOMC minutes were released at 1:00, then a small...
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James Brooks
By James Brooks The bond market is up 19/32 (2.31%), which should improve today's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of discount point from Thursday's levels (markets closed Friday in observance of the Independence Day holiday). Today has nothing of importance scheduled for release that we need to be concerned with. The financial situation in Greece is driving trading in the financial markets today, directly influencing today's...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates moved lower with more conviction to begin the week as global markets reacted to weekend events in Europe. Greece said No. The next meeting is tomorrow, an emergency meeting....it is always an emergency in Europe. Greece now has to come up with another proposal. Greece's economy has stopped, with bank closures extended through Wednesday to stem deposit withdrawals. Either Greece gets another handout or it will have to leave. EU...
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Suzen Ashley
We all wish to live a peaceful and happy life come what may all throughout our age however life is a perfect example of uncertainties. We may never know when what happens and what need arises when? Let us accept this openly and one thing is for sure the most important thing in life at any given point of time is your money which offers you a great support. It is a fact that if you have money with you have the world with you and without money you...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates hit their highest levels in 2015 on Friday, but after the news over the weekend out of Europe about Greece - there is no doubt that Greece is going to default tomorrow on its debt payment to the IMF - we saw the mortgage bonds improve significantly today. Greece closed their banks for the week, rattling global markets - now news that Porto Rico calling for concessions from the island's creditors in order to stave off a cash...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates are at an all-time high for 2015. Is this weekend going to offer up a deal? Markets think it might but that is a giant leap of faith based on what we have seen for the last four months. Yesterday the creditors came up with a five month plan to give Greece time and more money to get their economic house in order. Today though the finance ministers sounding not only skeptical but annoyed. A significant bloc of euro-zone ministers say...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates barely budged despite the fact that MBS prices and treasury prices increased today - not much and still technically bearish. All about Greece, markets completely obsessed with it, maybe too much but that is what is driving markets these days. Meanwhile economic data is gaining momentum in about every sector but manufacturing. EU finance ministers met again today, the third meeting in a week with no resolution. Meetings are expected...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates are caught in a vicious cycle right now that is not too pleasant. Basically, for the past seven weeks, they have been increasing with a few days where they allow us to catch our breath before they move upward again. Today, however, it was a quiet today as the world waits and wonders about what will happen with Greece. This morning May durable goods were soft, May new home sales stronger than expected. Neither got much attention...
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Linda Miller
Today, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) Director Richard Cordray issued the following statement on the Know Before You Owe mortgage disclosure rule: "The CFPB will be issuing a proposed amendment to delay the effective date of the Know Before You Owe rule until October 1, 2015. We made this decision to correct an administrative error that we just discovered in meeting the requirements under federal law, which would have delayed the...
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Linda Miller
Treasuries rallied after a Dovish Fed statement suggested that the pace of rate hikes will be slow. The Fed improved its stance on the economy, but stated that the conditions for a rate hike have not been achieved. General consensus is two hikes before the end of the year, so that leaves September and December. During the press conference Yellen urged that the market concern itself more with the pace of the hikes than the timing of the first...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates had a wild ride today. Underlying bond markets were significantly weaker leading up to the afternoon's Fed events. Prior to the 2:00 Statement the 10yr note yield increased 8BPS today and MBS prices were down 43BPS from yesterday's close. 15 minutes after the Statement the 10yr up just 1BPS and MBS prices were down just 5BPS. The Statement made no direct reference about when the Fed would begin increasing rates. Likely...
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