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Mortgage Rate Predictions

Feb 5, 2016 2:20PM PST

Rate Update 2/5/2016 : Mortgage rates are pretty flat today, and that is likely the result of some pre-NFP report consolidation.  NFP actually may not be as big of a deal as it has been historically, as the market seems to have it's sights on other data, considering that employment metrics have been doing well lately.  Bonds have been at the best rates in eight months, and it would take a larger than life miss to divert that pattern.  Along with the NFP report today, we also see the International Trade, Private Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Manufacturing Payrolls, as well as Average Workweek and Average Hours data.   Check back next week for the most up to date news, including the market reaction the today's NFP data.  Bookmark this page for daily mortgage updates:• 30 year... More

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3.790%

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4.349%

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4.125% Rate $969/mo
  • Updated February 08, 2016
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3.593%

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30 Year Fixed
3.375% Rate $884/mo
  • Updated February 08, 2016
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Mark Hemingway
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday that Q4 2015 worker Productivity fell by 3.0% versus -1.7% expected,reflecting the decline in economic growth during the quarter. Gross Domestic Product rose by just 0.7% in the final three months of 2015. Productivity rose just 0.6% in 2015, less than 1/3 of the post WWII average. Companies earn more profits and can pay employees higher wages when productivity is strong. But there's less...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates pulled off a come-from-behind victory following today's Fed Announcement. This time around, the Fed was not at all likely to make any changes to the Fed Funds rate, but investors were still curious to see how the Fed worded the statement in light of January's market turmoil. As far as Fed statements go, today's ended up being noticeably gloomier and markets reacted accordingly. Stocks and rates both fell in the...
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Bill
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Bill
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Bill
Make your business look beautiful with our affordable Merchant Advance and Business loan. We Can Fund from $5,000 to $500,000 If your business has a physical location, there's more than six (6) months left on your lease, you are been in business for at least six (6) months, and you process at least $5,000 per month in debit/credit card sales, then you meet our basic qualifications! Apply at:
Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates are uneasy today as we see this morning stock indexes were lower early, crude oil was lower but no improvement in interest rates. A complete opposite trend from yesterday. The 10yr note still has resistance at 2.00%, closing yesterday at 2.01% after trading down to 1.98% at one point yesterday, and is currently at 2.03% at 11:00AM. MBSs are hampering along in negative territory at a minus 10BPS. In earlier trading crude oil was...
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MEL SMITH--LENDER OF THE MONTH
Purchasing a home can be a complicated business; especially when you are entering the housing market for the very first time. Many first-time homebuyers fail to do enough research and fall into a lot of the same oversights. Here are some of the most common errors. Poor Budgeting Many homebuyers fall into the snare of not looking past the initial down payment. As a result they have virtually no funds left to cover other home buying expenses. If...
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Bart Castelli
Just as I stated in my evening blog yesterday, both US and Europe stock indexes opened better this morning, but the surprising factor is that US interest rates opened lower. Nothing significant about the stock markets being better, just starting the day taking a breath. Stocks will continue lower in this very bearish run, still expecting the DJIA to drop 20% at least from the recent highs last year. Economic news this morning showed Weekly...
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Mark Hemingway
After big gains in November, December Housing Starts declined 2.5% from the previous month, raising concerns about the health of the U.S. economy. The Commerce Department reported that Housing Starts came in at an annual pace of 1.149 million units, below the 1.197 million expected. This follows a recent spate of weak economic data. On the bright side, December was the ninth straight month that Housing Starts were above 1 million units, the...
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James Brooks
By James Brooks The bond market is up 21/32 (1.99%) which should push today's mortgage rates lower by approximately .250 of a discount point. The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield is below a very important threshold of 2.00%. It will be interesting to see if it remains below that level. Doing so opens the possibility of more improvements in the near future, driving mortgage rates lower also. On the other hand, if 2.00% is too strong of a...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates surged lower at the quickest pace of the year today as stocks and oil prices continued suffering heavy losses. At present, investors are fleeing from these riskier assets and seeking safer havens in the bond market, including the bonds that back mortgages. The stock market ended this week a lot better than last week but still lower - volatility through the week should not have surprised. The interest rate markets after all was said...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates spent the second straight day without moving any lower. While that may sound like a bad thing, it should be noted that rates certainly have not been in a hurry to move higher. Not unexpected, it was only a matter of a day or two that we would see this - markets do not go one way forever even with the outlook for lower equity prices ahead. The US Treasury market will continue to improve as long as inflation is way off and the rest...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates held their ground today, keeping them near the lowest levels in more than 2 months. There were no major economic reports, but financial markets were highly active nonetheless. This morning after some calm in Chinese markets US indexes opened better as crude oil went up $1.00. It did not last long before sellers continued to pound stocks lower. Crude oil recovered all of the initial gains to end the day about unchanged. The...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates moved to their lowest levels in the last two weeks as both financial markets (and myself) roared back to life after the winter break. In this age of ever-increasing automation and digital connectivity, it would be easy to assume that financial markets continue to hum along in the background even as the rest of the world takes some time off during the holidays. The truth is that financial markets are greatly affected by the...
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James Brooks
By James Brooks The bond market is down 15/32 (2.27%), we should see a increase in today's mortgage pricing by .125 of a point. The Conference Board gave us this week's only monthly data with the release of their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for December at 10:00 AM ET this morning. They announced a reading of 96.5 that exceeded forecasts by several points (93.5), indicating that surveyed consumers felt better about their own...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates moved today lower despite the long-awaited Fed rate hike. Did I just type that and did you read that correctly - LOWER mortgage rates and a HIGHER Fed rate? Even though the change on the mortgage rates was in terms of charges for the rate itself, it still was a positive direction than what we have seen for the past few days. The end of an era after almost 10 years of the FF rate at zero - the Fed increased the FF rate by 0.25%...
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James Brooks
By James Brooks The bond market is down 12/32 (2.27%), which should push Today's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point. November's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was today's only relevant economic data. The 8:30 AM ET release showed no surprises with no change in the overall reading and a 0.2% rise in the core data. Both readings pegged forecasts, indicating that inflationary pressures at the consumer level of...
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MEL SMITH--LENDER OF THE MONTH
One of the best means to obtain a lower mortgage rate is to improve your credit score. Higher credit scores can grant you access to lower rates and more beneficial loan programs. So, if you are concerned with keeping your credit score in good standing, or gradually improving your score over a period of a time, they're some simple things to implement. The most successful methods to keep a consistently good credit score are as follows: Pay...
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Mark Hemingway
Oil prices continue to drift lower hitting 11-year lows as a glut of oil supply flows through the global pipelines. West Texas Intermediate oil fell to $34.53 in today's trading. The drop in oil prices has led prices lower at your local gas stations. The national average price for a regular gallon of gasoline is at $2.01, while prices have fallen below $2 a gallon in 41 states. Last year at this time prices at the pumps averaged $2.55, and...
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bcahoone
Someone is always upset when they are left off of some list, but Owners.com, a national brokerage, has published the top 25 metro areas by home price changes from August-September 2014 compared with August-September 2015. The data found that the price for a three-bedroom single-family home in Denver, CO increased nearly 12%, followed by Orlando, FL and Miami, FL at 11.6 percent and 11 percent, respectively. (Contrast that with the price for a...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates moved moderately higher today, bringing them to the worst levels since last week. Selling occurred in treasuries and mortgage markets today. Not a big shock since the bellwether 10yr note tried again to move below 2.20%, the level that has curtailed even the smallest improvements in MBS prices. The reason today, the stock market indexes increased - not really a good reason but with the FOMC meeting next week and tomorrow being...
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James Brooks
By James Brooks The bond market is up 1/32 (2.23%),we still should see a slight improvement in today's mortgage rates. We saw some strength in bonds yesterday afternoon following the results of the 10-year Treasury Note auction. Several of the benchmarks we use to gauge investor demand showed a decent level of interest in the securities. That led to gains in the broader bond market and actually led to some lenders improving rates before the...
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Mark Hemingway
The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits continues to hover near lows seen in the early 1970s as the labor market continues to strengthen. As the end of the year approaches, claims tend to have a tendency to be a bit more volatile around the holiday season. The Labor Department reported that Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose by 13,000 in the latest week to 282,000, the highest level since early July. Claims have now...
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Jesse Stroup
The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits continues to hover near lows seen in the early 1970s as the labor market continues to strengthen. As the end of the year approaches, claims tend to have a tendency to be a bit more volatile around the holiday season. The Labor Department reported that Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose by 13,000 in the latest week to 282,000, the highest level since early July. Claims have now...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates held steady for a second straight day, but market volatility continued today - with real time quote reception you may not have noticed. The stock market opened better this morning running up 199 points, the 10yr note yield increased to 2.26% and MBSs were down 17BPS, but by early this afternoon the stock market rolled over, the 10yr note improved to the pivot resistance at 2.20% and MBS prices up 6BPS. The financial markets are...
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MEL SMITH--LENDER OF THE MONTH
The Good-Faith Estimate (GFE) is a document that contains the breakdown of estimated payments due upon the closing of a mortgage loan. This estimate assists borrowers as they shop and compare the costs of loans with various lenders. Savvy borrowers apply for at least two loans and use the GFE's to decide which lender to use. Nevertheless, there are some fees associated with this process. While the buyer pays many, the seller pays for some as...
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Jesse Stroup
Planned jobs cuts by U.S. employers fell to the lowest level in more than a year in November as the labor markets continue to improve. The energy sector continues to be the worst sector due to falling oil prices. Staffing firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that employers announced job cuts of 30,953 in November, nearly 40% fewer than October and the lowest level since September 2014. However, all was not rosy ... job cuts in 2015 have...
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Bart Castelli
Coming off their best day in over a month, mortgage rates held mostly steady today. This is somewhat of an accomplishment considering the movement seen in underlying bond markets. Specifically, bond markets suggested a bigger move higher in rates today, based on the typical level of correlation. Janet Yellen in her speech at the Washington Economics Club this afternoon painted a nice picture. In her view (the Fed's view) she is confident in...
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James Brooks
By James Brooks The bond market is down 10/32 (2.18%),we should a increase in today's rates by .125 of a point. The first of today's three relevant reports was ADP's November Employment report at 8:15 AM ET. It showed that 217,000 private-sector jobs were added during the month, exceeding forecasts of 185,000. Since that indicates a stronger than expected employment sector, we should consider the data negative for bonds and...
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Mark Hemingway
Private employment grew more than expected in November as the job sector continues to move to greener pastures. The solidifying job market could signal that an interest rate hike is on the table for the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on December 15 - 16. ADP reported that private employment rose by 217,000 in November, above the 185,000 expected and above the 196,000 recorded in October, which was revised higher from the 182,000 originally...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates had their best day in over a month today with a big push in the positive direction. It was the first day with any legitimate movement in nearly three weeks. Mixed data reports again today as both stocks and bonds rallied today - the bond market on weak manufacturing, stocks on auto sales and the new idea that MAYBE the Fed will not increase rates on the 16th as has been widely anticipated. Could be a one and off market in bonds...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rate drama has seen only microscopic changes from day to day, and they have canceled each other out over that time frame to boot! In other words, there has been no net change in rates since the middle of November. The past three business days (since last Wednesday before Thanksgiving) have been especially calm. The week began with weaker than anticipated data as the November Chicago purchasing manager went south as it was thought to be...
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Jesse Stroup
The National Association of REALTORS(R) (NAR) reported on Monday that Existing Home Sales in October declined 3.5% from September to an annual rate of 5.36 million units, lower than the 5.50 million expected. Year-over-year, sales were up 3.9%. The NAR said that the WestERN region was hit the hardest with a near 9% decline. The median home price for all housing types was $219,600, which is 5.8% above the $207,500 recorded in October 2014....
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates are having little change these days after hitting four months high last week. This after hitting six month lows in October. Even though the mortgage rates are not tied directly to the Fed rate, most rates tend to move in the same direction just based upon the likelihood of the increase. Most are waiting for the November Employment Report on December 4thwere certainty will be confirmed based on what the data shows. Again the minutes...
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Jesse Stroup
Mortgage Bonds are trading flat to lower this morning, just above a key technical support level.A mixed reading from weaker than expected Housing Starts and positive Building Permits had little impact on the markets. The Fed minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET today.I am recommending carefully floating, but will be mindful that even though the October Fed meeting came before the strong Jobs Report - the minutes could send a ripple in...
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MEL SMITH
Selling your home is an involved process. If you are in the process of attempting to sell your home you might wonder how to get the best appraisal value. Fortunately, there are many economical improvements you can make to increase your home's appraised value. 1.Put your best face forward: Items that appraisers consider within the home include holes, plaster cracks, water-stained walls, soiled carpeting, pests, and noticeable persistent...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates moved slightly lower for the third straight day and have now spent 4 days without moving higher. Like the previous two business days, the improvements were modest. That said, they are beginning to add up. This morning there was a safe haven move into US treasuries, it was minor compared to other market shocks. By this afternoon treasuries lost morning gains as the risk aversion movement faded quickly. The US dollar however did not...
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Jesse Stroup
Business activity in the New York State region declined for the fourth straight month in November, signaling that manufacturing activity remains weak. The New York State Index fell to 10.7 in November, below the -6.0 expected after falling in October. Within the report, it showed that the new orders and shipments components declined, while the employment numbers were also weak.Just in time for the Thanksgiving drive to Grandma's house, gas...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates reacted to weak economic data as well as falling prices in stocks and commodities. While it's not a hard and fast rule, when there is enough downward movement in things like stocks and oil, or when the economic data is weak enough, bond markets tend to benefit. The 10yr note yield declined this week 6BPS to 2.27% after the wild increase last Friday on what is likely an anomaly with the strong increases in jobs. MBS prices this...
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bcahoone
Lots of people love Friday the 13ths - we've had a few this year but there will be only one in 2016 (May). The Gregorian calendar is full of wonderful mathematical quirks, and here's one of them: under its regime, a century will never start on a Sunday. Or a Wednesday or Friday, for that matter since the Gregorian calendar completely cycles every 400 years; add 400 years to any date, and the day of the week will be exactly the same....
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bcahoone
...." There is no greater love than this....Than one who will lay down his life for another "... Today, we at Global Home Finance would like to Salute and say THANK YOU to all veterans, past and present for you service and sacrifice for our country. Without you we would not be here doing we what we love to do.
Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates did something they have not done on any other day so far this month. They avoided moving higher. While that was a welcome change, to be sure, today's rates did not move any lower on average. This keeps them in line with the highest levels in nearly four months. The journey has been a quick one as well, with the spike from 6-month lows to 4-month highs happening in just under 2 weeks. Tomorrow US banks will be closed - the...
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Larry Gray
I think people hear about different local homebuyer assistance programs available to people on certain levels of income, but they may not think they qualify. There might be some hurdles to go through, but if home ownership is a dream then perhaps it is time to look into the opportunity even if one has little savings. I want to speak about the opportunity my company and some others provides for people throughout California who may not have much...
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Jesse Stroup
CoreLogic reports that distressed sales, which include real estate owned properties and short sales, made up 9.3% of total home sales in August. That figure is down 2.3% from August 2014 and down 0.4% from July 2015. In addition, the 9.3% share is well below the peak of 32.4% set back at the height of the Great Recession in January 2009. Before the peak, distressed sales were about 2% on average.Staffing firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates continued their upward momentum today, rising to the highest levels since late September after Janet Yellen confirmed the Fed's rate hike outlook. Bond markets began adjusting for that outlook last week after the Fed announcement. Markets saw a roughly 1 in 3 chance of a December rate hike before that announcement, and better than 50 percent afterward. The combination of very strong ISM data and Yellen's comments today...
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James Brooks
By James Brooks The bond market is down 4/32 (2.21%), we should see a slight increase in today's mortgage rates by.125 of a point. Today's ADP Employment report revealed an increase of 182,000 new private sector payrolls. This was close to forecasts of 180,000, so cannot be considered a surprise. The fact that this was a decline from September's revised 190,000 is good news, but since the variance from expectations was minor, it...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates rose at a quicker pace today, bringing them up to the highest levels in more than a month. Selling continued today in the bond and mortgage markets. The 10yr note is cutting through resistance levels with ease since the FOMC meeting last week. MBSs following as usual but the majority of selling is treasuries as stocks rally. The policy statement led to an increase in the idea that the Fed will move in Dec. Stocks like that because...
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Bart Castelli
Mortgage rates continued slightly higher today, after hitting 1-month highs late last week. Stocks did well today, the bond and mortgage markets slightly weaker but generally quiet. It is unlikely the bond and mortgage markets will change much now through the rest of the week with employment out on Friday. The Fed is still on the table but certainly not a sure thing. The sense is the Fed is being pushed into a corner with the continual threat of...
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Jesse Stroup
The Commerce Department reported on Friday that consumer spending registered its lowest reading in eight months, while incomes barely rose. This signals an ease in domestic demand as the holiday shopping season draws near. Personal Spending rose a scant 0.1% in September, just below the 0.2% expected. Personal Incomes rose 0.1%, also below the 0.2% expected. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.Labor costs...
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Jesse Stroup
Economic growth in the third quarter of 2015 slowed across the nation, but it was mainly due to a big decline in inventories, particularly goods that are being exported. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the first reading on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the third quarter rose 1.5%, well below the 3.9% recorded in the second quarter. GDP measures the value of goods and services produced by the nation's economy. Many of the...
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